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A prediction model of abnormal acid reflux in gastroesophageal reflux disease

Background and Aim The measurement of esophageal acid exposure time (AET) using combined multichannel intraluminal impedance–pH (MII‐pH) tests is the gold standard for diagnosing gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). However, this catheter‐based 24‐h test can cause considerable patient discomfort....

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Published in:Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology 2024-09, Vol.39 (9), p.1847-1855
Main Authors: Sonoda, Michiko, Matsumura, Tomoaki, Dao, Hang Viet, Shiko, Yuki, Do, Phuong Nhat, Nguyen, Binh Phuc, Okimoto, Kenichiro, Akizue, Naoki, Ohyama, Yuhei, Mamiya, Yukiyo, Nakazawa, Hayato, Takahashi, Satsuki, Horio, Ryosuke, Goto, Chihiro, Kurosugi, Akane, Kaneko, Tatsuya, Ohta, Yuki, Saito, Keiko, Taida, Takashi, Kikuchi, Atsuko, Fujie, Mai, Kato, Jun, Dao, Long Van, Kato, Naoya
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container_title Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology
container_volume 39
creator Sonoda, Michiko
Matsumura, Tomoaki
Dao, Hang Viet
Shiko, Yuki
Do, Phuong Nhat
Nguyen, Binh Phuc
Okimoto, Kenichiro
Akizue, Naoki
Ohyama, Yuhei
Mamiya, Yukiyo
Nakazawa, Hayato
Takahashi, Satsuki
Horio, Ryosuke
Goto, Chihiro
Kurosugi, Akane
Kaneko, Tatsuya
Ohta, Yuki
Saito, Keiko
Taida, Takashi
Kikuchi, Atsuko
Fujie, Mai
Kato, Jun
Dao, Long Van
Kato, Naoya
description Background and Aim The measurement of esophageal acid exposure time (AET) using combined multichannel intraluminal impedance–pH (MII‐pH) tests is the gold standard for diagnosing gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). However, this catheter‐based 24‐h test can cause considerable patient discomfort. Our aim is to identify factors affecting AET and to develop a scoring model for predicting AET abnormalities before conducting the MII‐pH test. Methods Of the 366 patients who underwent MII‐pH test at two facilities in Japan and Vietnam, 255 patients who also had esophagogastroduodenoscopy and high‐resolution manometry were included in this study. Logistic regression analysis was conducted using risk factors for AET > 6% identified from a derivation cohort (n = 109). A scoring system predicting AET > 6% was then constructed and externally validated with a separate cohort (n = 146). Results Three variables were derived from the prediction model: male gender, Hill grades III–IV, and weak mean distal contractile integrals. Based on these scores, patients were classified into low (0 point), intermediate (1–3 points), and high (4 points) risk groups. The probabilities of having an AET > 6% were 6%, 34%, and 100% for these groups, respectively. A score of
doi_str_mv 10.1111/jgh.16602
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However, this catheter‐based 24‐h test can cause considerable patient discomfort. Our aim is to identify factors affecting AET and to develop a scoring model for predicting AET abnormalities before conducting the MII‐pH test. Methods Of the 366 patients who underwent MII‐pH test at two facilities in Japan and Vietnam, 255 patients who also had esophagogastroduodenoscopy and high‐resolution manometry were included in this study. Logistic regression analysis was conducted using risk factors for AET &gt; 6% identified from a derivation cohort (n = 109). A scoring system predicting AET &gt; 6% was then constructed and externally validated with a separate cohort (n = 146). Results Three variables were derived from the prediction model: male gender, Hill grades III–IV, and weak mean distal contractile integrals. Based on these scores, patients were classified into low (0 point), intermediate (1–3 points), and high (4 points) risk groups. The probabilities of having an AET &gt; 6% were 6%, 34%, and 100% for these groups, respectively. A score of &lt; 1 excluded patients with abnormal AET, with a negative predictive value of 93.8% in the derivation cohort and 80.0% in the validation cohort. Conclusions We derived and externally validated a prediction model for abnormal AET. This system could assist in guiding the appropriate treatment strategies for GERD.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0815-9319</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1440-1746</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1440-1746</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/jgh.16602</identifier><identifier>PMID: 38747056</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Australia: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</publisher><subject>A prediction model ; Acid exposure time ; Adult ; Aged ; Cohort Studies ; Contractility ; Electric Impedance ; Endoscopy, Digestive System ; Esophageal pH Monitoring ; Female ; Gastroesophageal reflux ; Gastroesophageal Reflux - diagnosis ; Gastroesophageal reflux disease ; High‐resolution manometry ; Humans ; Japan - epidemiology ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Manometry - methods ; Middle Aged ; pH effects ; Prediction models ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Risk Factors ; Risk groups ; Sex Factors</subject><ispartof>Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology, 2024-09, Vol.39 (9), p.1847-1855</ispartof><rights>2024 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley &amp; Sons Australia, Ltd.</rights><rights>2024 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley &amp; Sons Australia, Ltd</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3132-d9625cea6d8786a10f5a284e7faa8a28f79617fe09b4a300c7af06dd4a134ff63</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-5314-9325 ; 0000-0002-5809-1254 ; 0000-0003-1857-577X ; 0000-0002-6609-3081</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38747056$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Sonoda, Michiko</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Matsumura, Tomoaki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dao, Hang Viet</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shiko, Yuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Do, Phuong Nhat</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nguyen, Binh Phuc</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Okimoto, Kenichiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Akizue, Naoki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ohyama, Yuhei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mamiya, Yukiyo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nakazawa, Hayato</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Takahashi, Satsuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Horio, Ryosuke</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Goto, Chihiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kurosugi, Akane</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kaneko, Tatsuya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ohta, Yuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Saito, Keiko</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Taida, Takashi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kikuchi, Atsuko</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fujie, Mai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kato, Jun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dao, Long Van</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kato, Naoya</creatorcontrib><title>A prediction model of abnormal acid reflux in gastroesophageal reflux disease</title><title>Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology</title><addtitle>J Gastroenterol Hepatol</addtitle><description>Background and Aim The measurement of esophageal acid exposure time (AET) using combined multichannel intraluminal impedance–pH (MII‐pH) tests is the gold standard for diagnosing gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). However, this catheter‐based 24‐h test can cause considerable patient discomfort. Our aim is to identify factors affecting AET and to develop a scoring model for predicting AET abnormalities before conducting the MII‐pH test. Methods Of the 366 patients who underwent MII‐pH test at two facilities in Japan and Vietnam, 255 patients who also had esophagogastroduodenoscopy and high‐resolution manometry were included in this study. Logistic regression analysis was conducted using risk factors for AET &gt; 6% identified from a derivation cohort (n = 109). A scoring system predicting AET &gt; 6% was then constructed and externally validated with a separate cohort (n = 146). Results Three variables were derived from the prediction model: male gender, Hill grades III–IV, and weak mean distal contractile integrals. Based on these scores, patients were classified into low (0 point), intermediate (1–3 points), and high (4 points) risk groups. The probabilities of having an AET &gt; 6% were 6%, 34%, and 100% for these groups, respectively. A score of &lt; 1 excluded patients with abnormal AET, with a negative predictive value of 93.8% in the derivation cohort and 80.0% in the validation cohort. Conclusions We derived and externally validated a prediction model for abnormal AET. 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However, this catheter‐based 24‐h test can cause considerable patient discomfort. Our aim is to identify factors affecting AET and to develop a scoring model for predicting AET abnormalities before conducting the MII‐pH test. Methods Of the 366 patients who underwent MII‐pH test at two facilities in Japan and Vietnam, 255 patients who also had esophagogastroduodenoscopy and high‐resolution manometry were included in this study. Logistic regression analysis was conducted using risk factors for AET &gt; 6% identified from a derivation cohort (n = 109). A scoring system predicting AET &gt; 6% was then constructed and externally validated with a separate cohort (n = 146). Results Three variables were derived from the prediction model: male gender, Hill grades III–IV, and weak mean distal contractile integrals. Based on these scores, patients were classified into low (0 point), intermediate (1–3 points), and high (4 points) risk groups. The probabilities of having an AET &gt; 6% were 6%, 34%, and 100% for these groups, respectively. A score of &lt; 1 excluded patients with abnormal AET, with a negative predictive value of 93.8% in the derivation cohort and 80.0% in the validation cohort. Conclusions We derived and externally validated a prediction model for abnormal AET. This system could assist in guiding the appropriate treatment strategies for GERD.</abstract><cop>Australia</cop><pub>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</pub><pmid>38747056</pmid><doi>10.1111/jgh.16602</doi><tpages>9</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5314-9325</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5809-1254</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1857-577X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6609-3081</orcidid></addata></record>
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subjects A prediction model
Acid exposure time
Adult
Aged
Cohort Studies
Contractility
Electric Impedance
Endoscopy, Digestive System
Esophageal pH Monitoring
Female
Gastroesophageal reflux
Gastroesophageal Reflux - diagnosis
Gastroesophageal reflux disease
High‐resolution manometry
Humans
Japan - epidemiology
Logistic Models
Male
Manometry - methods
Middle Aged
pH effects
Prediction models
Predictive Value of Tests
Risk Factors
Risk groups
Sex Factors
title A prediction model of abnormal acid reflux in gastroesophageal reflux disease
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