Spatial analysis of dengue fever incidence and serotype distribution in Vientiane Capital, Laos: A multi-year study

• Published in: Acta tropica 2024-08, Vol.256, p.107229, Article 107229
• Main Authors: Phanhkongsy, Somsouk, Suwannatrai, Apiporn, Thinkhamrop, Kavin, Somlor, Somphavanh, Sorsavanh, Thepphouthone, Tavinyan, Vanxay, Sentian, Virany, Khamphilavong, Soulichanh, Samountry, Bounthome, Phanthanawiboon, Supranee
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Child; Child, Preschool; Dengue; Dengue - epidemiology; Dengue Virus - classification; Dengue Virus - isolation & purification; Female; Humans; Incidence; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Laos - epidemiology; Male; Middle Aged; Serogroup; Spatial Analysis; Vientiane Capital; Young Adult
• ISSN: 0001-706X; 1873-6254; 1873-6254
• DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107229

•Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is a hyperendemic country of all four dengue serotypes.•The number of dengue cases were drastically dropped during COVID-19 pandemic.•There is a high density of dengue cases in the urban areas, which is positively correlated with an increasing of temperature but lower in the area with vegetation.•The MaxEnt algorithms revealed that an increase in NDVI and NDWI was related to a reduction in the probability of dengue occurrence. Conversely, there was an upward trend in dengue occurrence with increasing LST. Laos is a hyperendemic country of all 4 dengue serotypes. Various factors contribute to the spread of the disease including viral itself, vectors, and environment. This study aims to analyze dengue data and its incidence in nine districts of Vientiane Capital, Laos spanning from 2019 to 2021 by data collected from Mittaphab Hospital. The Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was applied to assess spatial distribution and identify high-probability locations for dengue occurrence by analyzing crucial environmental and climatic conditions. Dengue cases were more prominent in female (54.88 %) and highest case number was found in worker group (29.02 %) followed by student (28.47 %) and officer (16.92 %). In this study, the age group 21–30 years old had the highest infection rate (42.23 %), followed by 10–20 years old (24.21 %). Most of dengue cases was primary infection (91.61 %). Dengue serotype 2 predominated in 2019 and 2020 and substitute by serotype 1 in 2021. Across the nine districts of Vientiane Capital, the highest incidence of dengue was found in Xaythany district population in 2019, shifting to Chanthabouly district in 2020 and 2021. The MaxEnt revealed potentially most suitable areas for dengue were widely distributed central south part of Vientiane, Laos. Additionally, the best predictive variable for dengue occurrence was normalized difference vegetation index. Understanding of case characteristics and spatial distribution features of dengue will be helpful in effective surveillance and disease control in the future.