Counterfactual simulation in causal cognition

• Published in: Trends in cognitive sciences 2024-10, Vol.28 (10), p.924-936
• Main Author: Gerstenberg, Tobias
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: causality; Cognition - physiology; counterfactuals; Humans; intuitive physics; Judgment - physiology; mental simulation; Models, Psychological; theory of mind; Thinking - physiology
• ISSN: 1364-6613; 1879-307X; 1879-307X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tics.2024.04.012

People judge causation and attribute responsibility by simulating counterfactual alternatives.The counterfactual simulation model (CSM) captures people’s causal judgments about physical events and responsibility judgments about social events.In the physical domain, the CSM predicts people’s judgments about dynamic collision events, about omissive causes, and about physical support.People spontaneously engage in counterfactual simulation when making causal judgments, as evidenced by their eye-movements.In the social domain, the CSM predicts people’s responsibility judgments in helping and hindering scenarios. How do people make causal judgments and assign responsibility? In this review article, I argue that counterfactual simulations are key. To simulate counterfactuals, we need three ingredients: a generative mental model of the world, the ability to perform interventions on that model, and the capacity to simulate the consequences of these interventions. The counterfactual simulation model (CSM) uses these ingredients to capture people’s intuitive understanding of the physical and social world. In the physical domain, the CSM predicts people’s causal judgments about dynamic collision events, complex situations that involve multiple causes, omissions as causes, and causes that sustain physical stability. In the social domain, the CSM predicts responsibility judgments in helping and hindering scenarios. How do people make causal judgments and assign responsibility? In this review article, I argue that counterfactual simulations are key. To simulate counterfactuals, we need three ingredients: a generative mental model of the world, the ability to perform interventions on that model, and the capacity to simulate the consequences of these interventions. The counterfactual simulation model (CSM) uses these ingredients to capture people’s intuitive understanding of the physical and social world. In the physical domain, the CSM predicts people’s causal judgments about dynamic collision events, complex situations that involve multiple causes, omissions as causes, and causes that sustain physical stability. In the social domain, the CSM predicts responsibility judgments in helping and hindering scenarios.