Construction and validation of a covariate-based model for district-level estimation of excess deaths due to COVID-19 in India

Different statistical approaches for estimating excess deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have led to varying estimates. In this study, we developed and validated a covariate-based model (CBM) with imputation for prediction of district-level excess deaths in India. We used da...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of global health 2024-05, Vol.14, p.05013, Article 05013
Main Authors: Krishnan, Anand, Dubey, Mahasweta, Kumar, Rakesh, Salve, Harshal R, Upadhyay, Ashish Datt, Gupta, Vivek, Malhotra, Sumit, Kaur, Ravneet, Nongkynrih, Baridalyne, Bairwa, Mohan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
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COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - mortality
Humans
India - epidemiology
Models, Statistical
SARS-CoV-2
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Summary:Different statistical approaches for estimating excess deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have led to varying estimates. In this study, we developed and validated a covariate-based model (CBM) with imputation for prediction of district-level excess deaths in India. We used data extracted from deaths registered under the Civil Registration System for 2015-19 for 684 of 713 districts in India to estimate expected deaths for 2020 through a negative binomial regression model (NBRM) and to calculate excess observed deaths. Specifically, we used 15 covariates across four domains (state, health system, population, COVID-19) in a zero inflated NBRM to identify covariates significantly (P 
ISSN:2047-2978
2047-2986
2047-2986
DOI:10.7189/jogh.14.05013