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The Causes and Consequences of Drifting Expectations

Awaiting news of uncertain outcomes is distressing because the news might be disappointing. To prevent such disappointments, people often “brace for the worst,” pessimistically lowering expectations before news arrives to decrease the possibility of surprising disappointment (a negative prediction e...

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Published in:Psychological science 2024-08, Vol.35 (8), p.900-917
Main Authors: Villano, William J., Kraus, Noah I., Reneau, T. Rick, Jaso, Brittany A., Otto, A. Ross, Heller, Aaron S.
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Language:English
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container_title Psychological science
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creator Villano, William J.
Kraus, Noah I.
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Heller, Aaron S.
description Awaiting news of uncertain outcomes is distressing because the news might be disappointing. To prevent such disappointments, people often “brace for the worst,” pessimistically lowering expectations before news arrives to decrease the possibility of surprising disappointment (a negative prediction error, or PE). Computational decision-making research commonly assumes that expectations do not drift within trials, yet it is unclear whether expectations pessimistically drift in real-world, high-stakes settings, what factors influence expectation drift, and whether it effectively buffers emotional responses to goal-relevant outcomes. Moreover, individuals learn from PEs to accurately anticipate future outcomes, but it is unknown whether expectation drift also impedes PE-based learning. In a sample of students awaiting exam grades (N = 625), we found that expectations often drift and tend to drift pessimistically. We demonstrate that bracing is preferentially modulated by uncertainty; it transiently buffers the initial emotional impact of negative PEs but impairs PE-based learning, counterintuitively sustaining uncertainty into the future.
doi_str_mv 10.1177/09567976241235930
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source International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS); SAGE
subjects Decision making
Disappointment
Emotional responses
Learning
Uncertainty
title The Causes and Consequences of Drifting Expectations
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