Risk to Reoffend Changes Over Time: Improving Correctional Programming Through Progress Monitoring

• Published in: Psychological assessment 2024-10, Vol.36 (10), p.595-605
• Main Authors: Babchishin, Kelly M., Hanson, R. Karl, Lee, Seung C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Correctional Institutions; Criminal Rehabilitation; Human; Male; Monitoring; Recidivism; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Sex crimes; Sex Offenses; Sexual behavior
• ISSN: 1040-3590; 1939-134X; 1939-134X
• DOI: 10.1037/pas0001335

Progress monitoring is integral to evidence-based practice. Correctional settings, especially the supervision of individuals who commit sexual offenses, elicit public concern; negative outcomes can be catastrophic. Using a prospective longitudinal study of 2,939 men with a history of sexual offenses undergoing community supervision, we examined different models of progress monitoring and how they should inform the assessment of risk for sexual recidivism. We found that the most recent assessment scores of the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools provided the best information about reoffending risk compared to using (a) the worst period of adjustments (i.e., highest risk score), (b) the best period of adjustments (i.e., lowest risk score), or (c) a rolling average of scores. We also found that the latest STABLE-2007 scores incrementally predicted sexual recidivism beyond baseline risk as assessed by demographic and criminal history variables (Static-99R). We conclude that the risk for sexual recidivism changes over time and that community corrections is advanced by repeated assessment of dynamic (changeable) risk factors. Public Significance Statement Individuals with a history of sexual offending are considered to be continually at high risk to reoffend. This is not the case: Recidivism risk varies over time. Professionals who aspire to prevent sexual recidivism and promote successful reintegration should keep their assessments up to date.