Spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of Aedes mosquitoes in India under current and future climatic scenarios

• Published in: Acta tropica 2024-12, Vol.260, p.107403, Article 107403
• Main Authors: Varamballi, Prasad, Babu N, Naren, Mudgal, Piya Paul, Shetty, Ujwal, Jayaram, Anup, Karunakaran, Kavitha, Arumugam, Sathishkumar, Mukhopadhyay, Chiranjay
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aedes; Aedes - growth & development; Aedes - physiology; Aedes - virology; Animal Distribution; Animals; Arbovirus; Climate; Climate action; Climate Change; Ecosystem; Forecast; India; Maxent; Modelling; Mosquito Vectors - physiology; Mosquito Vectors - virology; Temperature
• ISSN: 0001-706X; 1873-6254; 1873-6254
• DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107403

•Bioclimatic variables utilized to predict spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in India, employing species distribution models (SDM) with maximum entropy modelling.•Both species thrive in reduced diurnal temperature and higher annual mean temperatures, with suitability increasing alongside precipitation.•Ae. aegypti projected to have a broader present and future distribution than Ae. albopictus, with varying expansion under different climatic scenarios.•Future projections suggest potential increases in suitability for Ae. aegypti (17.6 % to 41.1 %) and Ae. albopictus (10.2 % to 25 %) in 2100 under different shared socioeconomic pathways. Aedes is the most globally distributed mosquito genus in the 21st century and transmits various arboviral diseases. The rapid expansion of Ae. Aegypti and Ae. albopictus breeding habitats is a significant threat to global public health, driven by temperature and precipitation changes. In this study, bioclimatic variables were employed to predict the spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in India. The reference coordinate points of (n = 583) Aedes occurrences at a scale of ∼1 km and nineteen bioclimatic factors were retrieved to train SDM (Species Distribution Models) for both species. Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the species’ fundamental climatic niche distributions. Future projections were made using global climate models for 2021–2040 and 2081–2100 separately. The models performed reasonably well (AUC > 0.77). Both species thrived in reduced diurnal temperature and higher annual mean temperatures, with suitability increasing alongside precipitation. Ae. aegypti’s projected present and future distribution was broader than that of Ae. Albopictus. The expansion of Aedes suitability varied under different future climatic scenarios. Suitability for Ae. aegypti could expand from between 17.6 and 41.1 % in 2100 under SSP (shared socioeconomic pathways) scenarios 1 and 3, respectively, whereas for Ae. albopictus suitability increased from between 10.2 and 25 % under SSP scenarios 1 and 3 respectively. Preparing for future epidemics and outbreaks requires robust vector distribution models to identify high-risk areas, allocate resources for surveillance and control, and implement prevention strategies.