A decision analysis of cancer patients and the consumption of ready-to-eat salad

• Published in: Risk analysis 2024-10
• Main Authors: Gomez, Carly B, Mitchell, Jade, Marks, Bradley P
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.17658

Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen of concern for cancer patients, who face higher morbidity and mortality rates than the general population. The neutropenic diet (ND), which excludes fresh produce, is often utilized to mitigate this risk; however, an analysis weighing the theoretical listeriosis risk reduction of produce exclusion aspects of the ND and possible negative tradeoffs has never been conducted. Consequently, this work constructed decision analytic models using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to compare the impacts of the ND, such as increased neutropenic enterocolitis (NEC) likelihood, with three alternative dietary practices (safe food handling [SFH], surface blanching, and refrigeration only) across five age groups, for cancer patients who consume ready-to-eat salad. Less disruptive diets had fewer negative health impacts in all scenarios, with median alternative diet DALYs per person per chemotherapy cycle having lower values in terms of negative health outcomes (0.088-0.443) than the ND (0.619-3.102). DALYs were dominated by outcomes associated with NEC, which is more common in patients following the ND than in other diets. Switchover point analysis confirmed that, because of this discrepancy, there were no feasible values of other parameters that could justify the ND. Correspondingly, the sensitivity analysis indicated that NEC mortality rate and remaining life expectancy strongly affected DALYs, further illustrating the model's strong dependence on NEC outcomes. Given these findings, and the SFH's ease of implementation and high compliance rates, the SFH diet is recommended in place of the ND.