Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible Epidemic Model with Symmetrical Fluctuations: Equilibrium States and Stability Analyses for Finite Systems

Accurate prediction of epidemic evolution faces challenges such as understanding disease dynamics and inadequate epidemiological data. A recent approach faced these issues by modeling susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) dynamics based on the first two statistical moments. Here, we improve this...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Acta biotheoretica 2024-12, Vol.72 (4), p.13, Article 13
Main Authors: Adami, Paulo S, Menin, Olavo H, Martinez, Alexandre S
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Communicable Diseases - epidemiology
Communicable Diseases - transmission
Computer Simulation
Disease Susceptibility
Epidemic models
Epidemics
Epidemiological Models
Epidemiology
Humans
Population Density
Statistical models
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Summary:Accurate prediction of epidemic evolution faces challenges such as understanding disease dynamics and inadequate epidemiological data. A recent approach faced these issues by modeling susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) dynamics based on the first two statistical moments. Here, we improve this approach by including finite-size populations and analyzing the stability of the resulting model. Results underscore the influence of uncertainties and population size in the natural history of the epidemic.
ISSN:0001-5342
1572-8358
1572-8358
DOI:10.1007/s10441-024-09490-0