Positive association of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater and reported COVID-19 cases in Singapore – A study across three populations

• Published in: The Science of the total environment 2023-12, Vol.902, p.166446-166446, Article 166446
• Main Authors: Wong, Yvonne Hui Min, Lim, Jue Tao, Griffiths, Jane, Lee, Benjamin, Maliki, Dzulkhairul, Thompson, Janelle, Wong, Michelle, Chae, Sae-Rom, Teoh, Yee Leong, Ho, Zheng Jie Marc, Lee, Vernon, Cook, Alex R., Tay, Martin, Wong, Judith Chui Ching, Ng, Lee Ching
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: COVID-19; COVID-19 infection; environment; Modelling; monitoring; Non-intrusive monitoring; RNA; SARS-CoV-2; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Singapore; vaccination; vaccines; wastewater; Wastewater surveillance
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166446

Wastewater testing of SARS-CoV-2 has been adopted globally and has shown to be a useful, non-intrusive surveillance method for monitoring COVID-19 trends. In Singapore, wastewater surveillance has been widely implemented across various sites and has facilitated timely COVID-19 management and response. From April 2020 to February 2022, SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater monitored across three populations, nationally, in the community, and in High Density Living Environments (HDLEs) were aggregated into indices and compared with reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations. Temporal trends and associations of these indices were compared descriptively and quantitatively, using Poisson Generalised Linear Models and Generalised Additive Models. National vaccination rates and vaccine breakthrough infection rates were additionally considered as confounders to shedding. Fitted models quantified the temporal associations between the indices and cases and COVID-related hospitalisations. At the national level, the wastewater index was a leading indicator of COVID-19 cases (p-value