Potential ecological risk assessment based on loss of ecosystem services due to land use and land cover change: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

• Published in: Applied geography (Sevenoaks) 2024-10, Vol.171, p.103389, Article 103389
• Main Authors: Zhang, Pengyan, Wang, Qianxu, Liu, Yu, Zhang, Jinbing
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: agricultural land; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; case studies; China; ecosystems; environmental assessment; forests; geography; grasslands; land use and land cover maps; Loss of the ecosystem services; LUCC; Potential ecological risk; risk; risk management; social welfare
• ISSN: 0143-6228
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2024.103389

Ecosystem services (ESs) bridge the gap between human wellbeing and ecosystem processes. Land use and land cover change (LUCC) affect ecosystem services by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), one of the most developed urban agglomerations in China, is subject to intense LUCC that affects ESs while increasing the regional ecological risk (ER). Therefore, to achieve the coordinated development of socioeconomic and ecological quality, there is an urgent need to establish a regional ecological risk assessment (ERA). ESs were introduced into the ERA to clarify their ecological significance and to compensate for the deficiencies of the traditional ERA. In this study, the ERA utilizes key ESs as endpoints to assess potential ER through a new framework by multiplying the probability of LUCC by the resultant loss of key ESs. We found that cultivated land was the most dominant outflow type and built-up land was the predominant inflow type. From 2020 to 2030, there is a greater possibility of changes in cultivated land, forest, grassland, and built-up land as well as in relatively stable water bodies and unused land. Overall, ESs show a positive trend. The overall potential ER was relatively minimal, with a significant northwestern spatially concentrated characteristic of high values. This study helps understand the potential development process of ERs and provides a scientific basis for risk management. •This study establishes a new framework to evaluate potential ecological risks.•Cultivated land is the most dominant outflow type and built-up land is the predominant inflow type.•Ecosystem services present a positive direction in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region.•Overall potential ecological risk is relatively minimal with significant spatial variation.