Forecasting coal production until 2100

A model capable of projecting mineral resources production has been developed. The model includes supply and demand interactions, and has been applied to all coal producing countries. A model of worldwide coal production has been developed for three scenarios. The ultimately recoverable resources (U...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Fuel (Guildford) 2009-11, Vol.88 (11), p.2059-2067
Main Authors: Mohr, S.H., Evans, G.M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Coal
Coal production
Coal reserves
Economic data
Energy
Energy economics
Exact sciences and technology
Fossil fuels and derived products
General, economic and professional studies
Peak coal
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Summary:A model capable of projecting mineral resources production has been developed. The model includes supply and demand interactions, and has been applied to all coal producing countries. A model of worldwide coal production has been developed for three scenarios. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) estimates used in the scenarios ranged from 700 Gt to 1243 Gt. The model indicates that worldwide coal production will peak between 2010 and 2048 on a mass basis and between 2011 and 2047 on an energy basis. The Best Guess scenario, assumed a URR of 1144 Gt and peaks in 2034 on a mass basis, and in 2026 on an energy basis.
ISSN:0016-2361
1873-7153
DOI:10.1016/j.fuel.2009.01.032