Modeling and prediction of Turkey’s electricity consumption using Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial Neural Networks are proposed to model and predict electricity consumption of Turkey. Multi layer perceptron with backpropagation training algorithm is used as the neural network topology. Tangent-sigmoid and pure-linear transfer functions are selected in the hidden and output layer proces...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy conversion and management 2009-11, Vol.50 (11), p.2719-2727
Main Authors: Kavaklioglu, Kadir, Ceylan, Halim, Ozturk, Harun Kemal, Canyurt, Olcay Ersel
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Artificial Neural Networks
Economic data
Electric energy
Electricity consumption
Energy
Energy economics
Exact sciences and technology
General, economic and professional studies
Methodology. Modelling
Turkey
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Artificial Neural Networks are proposed to model and predict electricity consumption of Turkey. Multi layer perceptron with backpropagation training algorithm is used as the neural network topology. Tangent-sigmoid and pure-linear transfer functions are selected in the hidden and output layer processing elements, respectively. These input–output network models are a result of relationships that exist among electricity consumption and several other socioeconomic variables. Electricity consumption is modeled as a function of economic indicators such as population, gross national product, imports and exports. It is also modeled using export–import ratio and time input only. Performance comparison among different models is made based on absolute and percentage mean square error. Electricity consumption of Turkey is predicted until 2027 using data from 1975 to 2006 along with other economic indicators. The results show that electricity consumption can be modeled using Artificial Neural Networks, and the models can be used to predict future electricity consumption.
ISSN:0196-8904
1879-2227
DOI:10.1016/j.enconman.2009.06.016