Stochastic Duration Modeling of Pavement Overlay Crack Initiation

In this paper we present the development of an empirical pavement overlay crack initiation model using condition survey data for the highway system in the state of Washington. We use a semiparametric Cox model and show that its hazard function represents the sample hazard function, which follows a b...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of infrastructure systems 2008-09, Vol.14 (3), p.185-192
Main Authors: Nakat, Ziad S, Madanat, Samer M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Building failures (cracks, physical changes, etc.)
Buildings. Public works
Computation methods. Tables. Charts
Durability. Pathology. Repairing. Maintenance
Exact sciences and technology
Road construction. Pavements. Maintenance
Structural analysis. Stresses
Surfacing
TECHNICAL PAPERS
Transportation infrastructure
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Summary:In this paper we present the development of an empirical pavement overlay crack initiation model using condition survey data for the highway system in the state of Washington. We use a semiparametric Cox model and show that its hazard function represents the sample hazard function, which follows a bathtub shape. This is a shape that commonly used parametric models cannot predict. Empirical data complications, such as the endogeneity of overlay design variables and data censoring, are corrected for using appropriate econometric techniques. Our research shows that a specification that captures the main factors responsible for the overlay crack initiation process, combined with careful analysis of the data, can produce models of sufficient realism for maintenance and rehabilitation action selection purposes.
ISSN:1076-0342
1943-555X
DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2008)14:3(185)