Predicting maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24

A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitud...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of astrophysics and astronomy 2009-03, Vol.30 (1), p.71-77
Main Authors: Bhatt, Nipa J., Jain, Rajmal, Aggarwal, Malini
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Astronomy
Astrophysics
Astrophysics and Astroparticles
Magnetism
Observations and Techniques
Physics
Physics and Astronomy
Solar activity
Studies
Sunspots
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Summary:A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8.
ISSN:0250-6335
0973-7758
DOI:10.1007/s12036-009-0004-y