simulation of heavy rainfall episode over Mumbai: impact of horizontal resolutions and cumulus parameterization schemes

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2010, Vol.52 (1), p.117-142
• Main Authors: Deb, Sanjib K, Kishtawal, C. M, Bongirwar, V. S, Pal, P. K
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Atmospheric models; Atmospheric research; Civil Engineering; Climatology; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Environmental Management; Exact sciences and technology; Extreme weather; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Horizontal; Hydrogeology; Mathematical models; Moisture; Natural Hazards; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Original Paper; Parametrization; Rain; Rainfall; Simulated rainfall; Simulation; Weather; Weather forecasting
• ISSN: 1573-0840; 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9361-8

In this study, the simulation of an extreme weather event like heavy rainfall over Mumbai (India) on July 26, 2005 has been attempted with different horizontal resolutions using the Advanced Research Weather Research Forecast model version 2.0.1 developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA. The study uses the Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and the Grell-Devenyi ensemble (GDE) cumulus parameterization schemes in single and nested domain configurations. The model performance was evaluated by examining the different predicted parameters like upper and lower level circulations, moisture, temperature, and rainfall. The large-scale circulation features, moisture, and temperature were compared with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction analyses. The rainfall prediction was assessed quantitatively by comparing rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission products and the observed station values reported in the Indian Daily Weather Reports from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The quantitative validation of the simulated rainfall was done by calculating the categorical skill scores like frequency bias, threat scores (TS), and equitable threat scores (ETS). It is found that in all simulations, both in single and nested domains, the GDE scheme has outperformed the BMJ scheme for the simulation of rainfall for this specific event.