Sunspots in a cash-in-advance model: A quantitative assessment

Does consideration of sunspot equilibria in the cash-in-advance model help the model match key features in the US macroeconomic data? One can use the cash-in-advance model to generate predictions of macro time series via an equilibrium of the model. However, when restricted to minimum state variable...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of macroeconomics 2007-03, Vol.29 (1), p.123-144
Main Author: Stockman, David R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cash-in-advance
Equilibrium theory
Mathematical methods
Monetary economics
Monetary models
Monetary policy
Monetary theory
Sunspot equilibria
Sunspots
Citations: Items that this one cites
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Summary:Does consideration of sunspot equilibria in the cash-in-advance model help the model match key features in the US macroeconomic data? One can use the cash-in-advance model to generate predictions of macro time series via an equilibrium of the model. However, when restricted to minimum state variable stationary rational expectations equilibria, the model’s predictions do not match the data well. There is a large a growing literature that demonstrates that this model may exhibit a much larger class of equilibria including stationary sunspot equilibria. Does expanding the predictive content of the CIA model by considering this larger set of equilibria help the model match the US data? In this paper, sunspot equilibria under both a money growth rule and an interest rate feedback rule are quantitatively explored to answer this question.
ISSN:0164-0704
1873-152X
DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2005.04.004