Aggregate consumer expectation indexes as indicators of future consumer expenditures

Multivariate vector autoregression analyses were undertaken to investigate whether or not aggregate consumer attitude and expectation measures such as the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations and the Conference Board Index of Consumer Confidence and Consumer E...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of economic psychology 1998-04, Vol.19 (2), p.215-235
Main Authors: Eppright, David R, Arguea, Nestor M, Huth, William L
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Advertising. Marketing. Consume behavior
Aggregate expenditure
Applied psychology
Attitudes
Biological and medical sciences
Consumer attitudes
Consumer behaviour
Consumer expenditure
Consumer spending
Economic forecasting
Economic indicators
Economics
Expectation
Expectations
Expenditures
Forecasts
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Indexes
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Regression analysis
Studies
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Summary:Multivariate vector autoregression analyses were undertaken to investigate whether or not aggregate consumer attitude and expectation measures such as the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations and the Conference Board Index of Consumer Confidence and Consumer Expectations possessed a priori information not contained in certain economic variables which might be useful in anticipating changes in future aggregate consumer expenditures. The multivariate vector autoregression analyses indicated that the aggregate consumer expectation measures led the aggregate consumer expenditure measures more often than did the economic indicators. Thus, the aggregate consumer expectation measures appeared to provide predictive power not possessed by the economic indicators in the analyses. PsycINFO classification: SC 11470; SC 18460; SC 15915
ISSN:0167-4870
1872-7719
DOI:10.1016/S0167-4870(98)00005-1