Duration Dependence in Migration Behaviour: Cumulative Inertia versus Stochastic Change

In this paper a new theoretical framework and supporting empirical evidence on the relationship between movement probabilities and length of stay are presented. Individuals' evaluations of the relative value of alternative locations are assumed to evolve stochastically, with a possible tendency...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environment and planning. A 1995-12, Vol.27 (12), p.1961-1975
Main Authors: Gordon, I R, Molho, I
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bgi / Prodig
Geographic location
Households
Human geography
Migration
Migrations
Population geography and social geography
Residential mobility
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Summary:In this paper a new theoretical framework and supporting empirical evidence on the relationship between movement probabilities and length of stay are presented. Individuals' evaluations of the relative value of alternative locations are assumed to evolve stochastically, with a possible tendency either to cumulative inertia or to cumulative stress. In general this yields a nonmonotonic duration function, with probabilities of movement starting at zero, rising and then falling—a pattern consistent with either cumulative tendency, or neither. A version of the model fitted to data on household movement intentions, from the UK General Household Survey, confirms the hypothesised form of this function and indicates a dominance of cumulative stress over cumulative inertia.
ISSN:0308-518X
1472-3409
DOI:10.1068/a271961