A Simulation Analysis of the Debt Problem in Pakistan

This paper analyses past trends in resource deficits and develops a simulation model to forecast future trends in internal and external resource gaps, borrowing needs, and debt accumulation. The results show that if the past trends continue, the debt situation, especially the need for external borro...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Pakistan development review 1998-12, Vol.37 (4), p.355-376
Main Authors: Ahmad, Eatzaz, Ahmed, Ayaz
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Budget deficits
Debt management
Economic aspects
Economic growth
Economic growth rate
External debt
Federal budget deficit
Financial crisis
Financial investments
Gross domestic product
Inflation rates
Internal debt
International economic relations
International monetary economics
MACRO MANAGEMENT
Management
Pakistan
Private sector
Public debt
Public debts
Public economics
Public investments
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Description
Summary:This paper analyses past trends in resource deficits and develops a simulation model to forecast future trends in internal and external resource gaps, borrowing needs, and debt accumulation. The results show that if the past trends continue, the debt situation, especially the need for external borrowing, will become more severe in the future. The paper suggests a broadly based policy mix, which not only has significant favourable effects on the budget position, external balance, borrowings and debts, but also raises the growth rate of GDP, improves foreign exchange reserves position, controls inflation, and stabilises the exchange rate of the Pakistani rupee.
ISSN:0030-9729
DOI:10.30541/v37i4IIpp.355-376