Assessing the historical accuracy of regional economic forecasts

This study addresses for the first time systematic evaluation of a widely used class of forecasts, regional economic forecasts. Ex ante regional structural equation model forecasts are analysed for 19 metropolitan areas. One‐ to ten‐quarter‐ahead forecasts are considered and the seven‐year sample sp...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of forecasting 1996-01, Vol.15 (1), p.19-36
Main Authors: West, Carol Taylor, Fullerton Jr, Thomas M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Budgets
Comparative analysis
Econometric models
Econometrics
Economic forecasts
Forecasts
Metropolitan areas
Policy making
Regional economics
regional forecast evaluation
Studies
Time series
univariate time series analysis
Citations: Items that this one cites
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:This study addresses for the first time systematic evaluation of a widely used class of forecasts, regional economic forecasts. Ex ante regional structural equation model forecasts are analysed for 19 metropolitan areas. One‐ to ten‐quarter‐ahead forecasts are considered and the seven‐year sample spans a complete business cycle. Counter to previous speculation in the literature, (1) dependency on macroeconomic forecasting model inputs does not substantially erode accuracy relative to univariate extrapolative methodologies and (2) stochastic time series models do not on average, yield more accurate regional economic predictions than structural models. Similar to findings in other studies, clear preferences among extrapolative methodologies do not emerge. Most general conclusions, however, are subject to caveats based on step‐length effects and region‐specific effects.
ISSN:0277-6693
1099-131X
DOI:10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199601)15:1<19::AID-FOR602>3.0.CO;2-B