The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest

The decision to harvest or conserve old-growth forest is formulated as a stochastic decision problem in continuous time. Uncertainty in future amenity values for standing forest and in future timber revenues for harvested forest are included in the model, along with the risk of catastrophic destruct...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ecological economics 1993-08, Vol.8 (1), p.45-69
Main Author: Reed, William J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
BOSQUES
CORTA DE APROVECHAMIENTO
COUPE DE PRODUCTION
DECISION MAKING
Forest management
FOREST PROTECTION
FORESTS
FORET
PRINCIPAL FELLING
PRISE DE DECISION
PROTECCION FORESTAL
PROTECTION DE LA FORET
Resource conservation
TOMA DE DECISIONES
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-470e6fab7580199a717d7820264471d46cff550b215d9b48a8e837e8c43b38f93
cites cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-470e6fab7580199a717d7820264471d46cff550b215d9b48a8e837e8c43b38f93
container_end_page 69
container_issue 1
container_start_page 45
container_title Ecological economics
container_volume 8
creator Reed, William J.
description The decision to harvest or conserve old-growth forest is formulated as a stochastic decision problem in continuous time. Uncertainty in future amenity values for standing forest and in future timber revenues for harvested forest are included in the model, along with the risk of catastrophic destruction by fire, pest infestation, etc. It is shown how the decision problem can be expressed as an optimal stopping problem which can be solved analytically. The optimal decision rule is shown to depend on how the ratio of current timber value to the current expected present value of amenity benefits foregone through harvesting compares with some critical level. The effects of changes in uncertainty and other parameters on the optimal rule are discussed. Also it is shown how the cost-benefit analysis and certainty-equivalence procedures lead to premature harvesting, and the expected loss in survival time for these sub-optimal procedures is calculated.
doi_str_mv 10.1016/0921-8009(93)90030-A
format article
fullrecord <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_39050551</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><els_id>092180099390030A</els_id><sourcerecordid>1292123514</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-470e6fab7580199a717d7820264471d46cff550b215d9b48a8e837e8c43b38f93</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqFkE2LFDEQhoO44Lj6B8RDgyB66LXS-ejkIgyLrgvDelnPIZOu3snS0xmTnln231ttyx48aOClispbVcnD2FsOFxy4_gS24bUBsB-s-GgBBNTrZ2zFTStqzUE_Z6snywv2spR7ANDaihVTtzusOgyxxDRWU6pCGgvmE1YpVztPSZmqNHT1XU4P067qU6bKK3bW-6Hg6z_xnP34-uX28lu9-X51fbne1EFJmGrZAureb1tlgFvrW952rWmg0VK2vJM69L1SsG246uxWGm_QiBZNkGIrTG_FOXu_zD3k9PNIi90-loDD4EdMx-KEBQVK8f8auVa2EdaQ8d1fxvt0zCN9wvGGGDVCcUkuubhCTqVk7N0hx73Pj46Dm5G7maebeTor3G_kbk1tV0tbxgOGpx6kE9JAlZMT3pAeSQREUIhzSjqQpHLaut20p0lvlkm9T87f5VjczcYKUK2ZqXxeLpHQnyJmV0LEMWAXM4bJdSn--52_AMb0paE</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1292123514</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest</title><source>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</source><source>Backfile Package - Environmental Science (Legacy) [YES]</source><source>Science Direct (Econometrics Backfile)</source><creator>Reed, William J.</creator><creatorcontrib>Reed, William J.</creatorcontrib><description>The decision to harvest or conserve old-growth forest is formulated as a stochastic decision problem in continuous time. Uncertainty in future amenity values for standing forest and in future timber revenues for harvested forest are included in the model, along with the risk of catastrophic destruction by fire, pest infestation, etc. It is shown how the decision problem can be expressed as an optimal stopping problem which can be solved analytically. The optimal decision rule is shown to depend on how the ratio of current timber value to the current expected present value of amenity benefits foregone through harvesting compares with some critical level. The effects of changes in uncertainty and other parameters on the optimal rule are discussed. Also it is shown how the cost-benefit analysis and certainty-equivalence procedures lead to premature harvesting, and the expected loss in survival time for these sub-optimal procedures is calculated.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0921-8009</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1873-6106</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/0921-8009(93)90030-A</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>BOSQUES ; CORTA DE APROVECHAMIENTO ; COUPE DE PRODUCTION ; DECISION MAKING ; Forest management ; FOREST PROTECTION ; FORESTS ; FORET ; PRINCIPAL FELLING ; PRISE DE DECISION ; PROTECCION FORESTAL ; PROTECTION DE LA FORET ; Resource conservation ; TOMA DE DECISIONES</subject><ispartof>Ecological economics, 1993-08, Vol.8 (1), p.45-69</ispartof><rights>1993</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-470e6fab7580199a717d7820264471d46cff550b215d9b48a8e837e8c43b38f93</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-470e6fab7580199a717d7820264471d46cff550b215d9b48a8e837e8c43b38f93</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/092180099390030A$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,3460,3482,27924,27925,33224,45992,45993</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeecolec/v_3a8_3ay_3a1993_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a45-69.htm$$DView record in RePEc$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Reed, William J.</creatorcontrib><title>The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest</title><title>Ecological economics</title><description>The decision to harvest or conserve old-growth forest is formulated as a stochastic decision problem in continuous time. Uncertainty in future amenity values for standing forest and in future timber revenues for harvested forest are included in the model, along with the risk of catastrophic destruction by fire, pest infestation, etc. It is shown how the decision problem can be expressed as an optimal stopping problem which can be solved analytically. The optimal decision rule is shown to depend on how the ratio of current timber value to the current expected present value of amenity benefits foregone through harvesting compares with some critical level. The effects of changes in uncertainty and other parameters on the optimal rule are discussed. Also it is shown how the cost-benefit analysis and certainty-equivalence procedures lead to premature harvesting, and the expected loss in survival time for these sub-optimal procedures is calculated.</description><subject>BOSQUES</subject><subject>CORTA DE APROVECHAMIENTO</subject><subject>COUPE DE PRODUCTION</subject><subject>DECISION MAKING</subject><subject>Forest management</subject><subject>FOREST PROTECTION</subject><subject>FORESTS</subject><subject>FORET</subject><subject>PRINCIPAL FELLING</subject><subject>PRISE DE DECISION</subject><subject>PROTECCION FORESTAL</subject><subject>PROTECTION DE LA FORET</subject><subject>Resource conservation</subject><subject>TOMA DE DECISIONES</subject><issn>0921-8009</issn><issn>1873-6106</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1993</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8BJ</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkE2LFDEQhoO44Lj6B8RDgyB66LXS-ejkIgyLrgvDelnPIZOu3snS0xmTnln231ttyx48aOClispbVcnD2FsOFxy4_gS24bUBsB-s-GgBBNTrZ2zFTStqzUE_Z6snywv2spR7ANDaihVTtzusOgyxxDRWU6pCGgvmE1YpVztPSZmqNHT1XU4P067qU6bKK3bW-6Hg6z_xnP34-uX28lu9-X51fbne1EFJmGrZAureb1tlgFvrW952rWmg0VK2vJM69L1SsG246uxWGm_QiBZNkGIrTG_FOXu_zD3k9PNIi90-loDD4EdMx-KEBQVK8f8auVa2EdaQ8d1fxvt0zCN9wvGGGDVCcUkuubhCTqVk7N0hx73Pj46Dm5G7maebeTor3G_kbk1tV0tbxgOGpx6kE9JAlZMT3pAeSQREUIhzSjqQpHLaut20p0lvlkm9T87f5VjczcYKUK2ZqXxeLpHQnyJmV0LEMWAXM4bJdSn--52_AMb0paE</recordid><startdate>19930801</startdate><enddate>19930801</enddate><creator>Reed, William J.</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><general>Elsevier</general><general>Elsevier Limited</general><scope>FBQ</scope><scope>DKI</scope><scope>X2L</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>JQCIK</scope><scope>K30</scope><scope>PAAUG</scope><scope>PAWHS</scope><scope>PAWZZ</scope><scope>PAXOH</scope><scope>PBHAV</scope><scope>PBQSW</scope><scope>PBYQZ</scope><scope>PCIWU</scope><scope>PCMID</scope><scope>PCZJX</scope><scope>PDGRG</scope><scope>PDWWI</scope><scope>PETMR</scope><scope>PFVGT</scope><scope>PGXDX</scope><scope>PIHIL</scope><scope>PISVA</scope><scope>PJCTQ</scope><scope>PJTMS</scope><scope>PLCHJ</scope><scope>PMHAD</scope><scope>PNQDJ</scope><scope>POUND</scope><scope>PPLAD</scope><scope>PQAPC</scope><scope>PQCAN</scope><scope>PQCMW</scope><scope>PQEME</scope><scope>PQHKH</scope><scope>PQMID</scope><scope>PQNCT</scope><scope>PQNET</scope><scope>PQSCT</scope><scope>PQSET</scope><scope>PSVJG</scope><scope>PVMQY</scope><scope>PZGFC</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope></search><sort><creationdate>19930801</creationdate><title>The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest</title><author>Reed, William J.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-470e6fab7580199a717d7820264471d46cff550b215d9b48a8e837e8c43b38f93</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1993</creationdate><topic>BOSQUES</topic><topic>CORTA DE APROVECHAMIENTO</topic><topic>COUPE DE PRODUCTION</topic><topic>DECISION MAKING</topic><topic>Forest management</topic><topic>FOREST PROTECTION</topic><topic>FORESTS</topic><topic>FORET</topic><topic>PRINCIPAL FELLING</topic><topic>PRISE DE DECISION</topic><topic>PROTECCION FORESTAL</topic><topic>PROTECTION DE LA FORET</topic><topic>Resource conservation</topic><topic>TOMA DE DECISIONES</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Reed, William J.</creatorcontrib><collection>AGRIS</collection><collection>RePEc IDEAS</collection><collection>RePEc</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segment 33</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - West</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - MEA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - West</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segments 1-50</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - MEA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - West</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access &amp; Build (Plan A) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - MEA</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>Ecological economics</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Reed, William J.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest</atitle><jtitle>Ecological economics</jtitle><date>1993-08-01</date><risdate>1993</risdate><volume>8</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>45</spage><epage>69</epage><pages>45-69</pages><issn>0921-8009</issn><eissn>1873-6106</eissn><abstract>The decision to harvest or conserve old-growth forest is formulated as a stochastic decision problem in continuous time. Uncertainty in future amenity values for standing forest and in future timber revenues for harvested forest are included in the model, along with the risk of catastrophic destruction by fire, pest infestation, etc. It is shown how the decision problem can be expressed as an optimal stopping problem which can be solved analytically. The optimal decision rule is shown to depend on how the ratio of current timber value to the current expected present value of amenity benefits foregone through harvesting compares with some critical level. The effects of changes in uncertainty and other parameters on the optimal rule are discussed. Also it is shown how the cost-benefit analysis and certainty-equivalence procedures lead to premature harvesting, and the expected loss in survival time for these sub-optimal procedures is calculated.</abstract><cop>Amsterdam, The Netherlands</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><doi>10.1016/0921-8009(93)90030-A</doi><tpages>25</tpages></addata></record>
fulltext fulltext
identifier ISSN: 0921-8009
ispartof Ecological economics, 1993-08, Vol.8 (1), p.45-69
issn 0921-8009
1873-6106
language eng
recordid cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_39050551
source International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS); Backfile Package - Environmental Science (Legacy) [YES]; Science Direct (Econometrics Backfile)
subjects BOSQUES
CORTA DE APROVECHAMIENTO
COUPE DE PRODUCTION
DECISION MAKING
Forest management
FOREST PROTECTION
FORESTS
FORET
PRINCIPAL FELLING
PRISE DE DECISION
PROTECCION FORESTAL
PROTECTION DE LA FORET
Resource conservation
TOMA DE DECISIONES
title The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest
url http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-04T05%3A37%3A52IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=The%20decision%20to%20conserve%20or%20harvest%20old-growth%20forest&rft.jtitle=Ecological%20economics&rft.au=Reed,%20William%20J.&rft.date=1993-08-01&rft.volume=8&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=45&rft.epage=69&rft.pages=45-69&rft.issn=0921-8009&rft.eissn=1873-6106&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016/0921-8009(93)90030-A&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E1292123514%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-470e6fab7580199a717d7820264471d46cff550b215d9b48a8e837e8c43b38f93%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1292123514&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true