The Predictive Quality of Political Stock Exchanges and Polls

The comparison of election polls & opinion surveys is part of the rituals of election coverage that starts after the announcement of the election results. However, many of these analyses do not refer to the predictions. In this essay, a similar comparison is made based on predictions calculated...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Politische Vierteljahresschrift 2005-12, Vol.46 (4), p.674-681
Main Authors: Schaffer, Lena-Maria, Schneider, Gerald
Format: Article
Language:ger
Subjects:
Elections
Federal Republic of Germany
News Coverage
Opinion Polls
Prediction
Public Opinion Research
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The comparison of election polls & opinion surveys is part of the rituals of election coverage that starts after the announcement of the election results. However, many of these analyses do not refer to the predictions. In this essay, a similar comparison is made based on predictions calculated by the authors before the outcome of the Bundestag Election 2005. The analysis shows that the election poll Wahl$treet performed better than commercial institutes. Because of extraordinary prediction errors, particularly regarding survey institutes, the authors discuss the Social-Choice-Theory & the consequences that erroneous surveys have on election decisions. Tables, Figures, References. Adapted from the source document.
ISSN:0032-3470
DOI:10.1007/s11615-005-0307-9