FIRE IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON: A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODEL FOR POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farm‐gate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of field management and deforestation fi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of regional science 2007-08, Vol.47 (3), p.541-567
Main Authors: Arima, Eugenio Y., Simmons, Cynthia S., Walker, Robert T., Cochrane, Mark A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
Amazon
Amazonian Basin
America
Bgi / Prodig
Brazil
Brazil. Amazonian Basin
Conservation
Crops
Deforestation
Environmental impact
Exports and Imports
Fire
Forest & brush fires
Forestry
Impact analysis
Model testing
Natural resources
Policy analysis
Prices
Probability
Regional studies
Resource management
Studies
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Summary:ABSTRACT This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farm‐gate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of field management and deforestation fires to simulate the impact of road‐paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.
ISSN:0022-4146
1467-9787
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00519.x