Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election: A Challenge for the Fiscal Model

In 2004, for the first time the fiscal model was employed for the purpose of real-time, ex ante forecasting of a presidential election. The results were encouraging (Cuzán and Bundrick 2005). This year, however, the model encounters a set of challenging conditions, relevant only to it, never seen in...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PS, political science & politics political science & politics, 2008-10, Vol.41 (4), p.717-722
Main Authors: Cuzán, Alfred G., Bundrick, Charles M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Changes
Economic Factors
Economic forecasting models
Election forecasting
Election returns
Elections
Exhibits
Federal budget
Financial Policy
Forecasting
Forecasting models
Gross domestic product
Incumbents
Literary Devices
Modeling
Political parties
Presidential elections
Presidents
Symposium: Forecasting the 2008 National Elections
Variables
Voting
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Summary:In 2004, for the first time the fiscal model was employed for the purpose of real-time, ex ante forecasting of a presidential election. The results were encouraging (Cuzán and Bundrick 2005). This year, however, the model encounters a set of challenging conditions, relevant only to it, never seen in the data before. In this paper, we briefly summarize the model, describe the problem, wrestle with ways to address it, and conclude with a forecast for November.
ISSN:1049-0965
1537-5935
DOI:10.1017/S1049096508081171