PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, 2006-2016

This article reconsiders the conventional wisdom that the prospects for nuclear proliferation in Southeast Asia are too small to mention. After outlining the assumptions that underpin the conventional wisdom, it identifies recent regional and global trends that tend to weaken those assumptions and d...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Nonproliferation review 2006-11, Vol.13 (3), p.605-615
Main Author: Malley, Michael S.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Burma
Indonesia
Iran
Myanmar
Nuclear Proliferation
Proliferation networks
Regional Security
Southeast Asia
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Summary:This article reconsiders the conventional wisdom that the prospects for nuclear proliferation in Southeast Asia are too small to mention. After outlining the assumptions that underpin the conventional wisdom, it identifies recent regional and global trends that tend to weaken those assumptions and develops two proliferation scenarios, one centered on Burma and the other on Indonesia. It finds that the prospects for nuclear proliferation in Southeast Asia before 2016 remain nearly as remote as the conventional wisdom suggests, yet current trends suggest that the foundation for future proliferation may be laid during the coming decade. The scenarios suggest that attention ought to be focused not just on countries that are likely to proliferate, but on ways that Southeast Asian individuals might be drawn into regional and global proliferation networks.
ISSN:1073-6700
1746-1766
DOI:10.1080/10736700601071918