The Spatial Patterning of County Homicide Rates: An Application of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

The possibility that homicides can spread from one geographic area to another has been entertained for some time by social scientists, yet systematic efforts to demonstrate the existence, or estimate the strength, of such a diffusion process are just beginning. This paper uses exploratory spatial da...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of quantitative criminology 1999-12, Vol.15 (4), p.423-450
Main Authors: Messner, Steven F., Anselin, Luc, Baller, Robert D., Hawkins, Darnell F., Deane, Glenn, Tolnay, Stewart E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Autocorrelation
Censuses
Cities
Counties
Criminology
Data analysis
Geographic Distribution
Geographic Regions
Georgia
Homicide
Homicide rates
Hypotheses
Lynchings
Methodology (Data Analysis)
Metropolitan areas
Missouri
Murders & murder attempts
Outliers
Randomness
Social networks
Spatial Analysis
Spatial data
Violence
Violent crimes
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Summary:The possibility that homicides can spread from one geographic area to another has been entertained for some time by social scientists, yet systematic efforts to demonstrate the existence, or estimate the strength, of such a diffusion process are just beginning. This paper uses exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) to examine the distribution of homicides in 78 counties in, or around, the St. Louis metropolitan area for two time periods: a period of relatively stable homicide (1984–1988) and a period of generally increasing homicide (1988–1993). The findings reveal that homicides are distributed nonrandomly, suggestive of positive spatial autocorrelation. Moreover, changes over time in the distribution of homicides suggest the possible diffusion of lethal violence out of one county containing a medium-sized city (Macon County) into two nearby counties (Morgan and Sangamon Counties) located to the west. Although traditional correlates of homicide do not account for its nonrandom spatial distribution across counties, we find some evidence that more affluent areas, or those more rural or agricultural areas, serve as barriers against the diffusion of homicides. The patterns of spatial distribution revealed through ESDA provide an empirical foundation for the specification of multivariate models which can provide formal tests for diffusion processes.
ISSN:0748-4518
1573-7799
DOI:10.1023/a:1007544208712