Assessing Macro-Level Predictors and Theories of Crime: A Meta-Analysis

The macro-level approach reemerged as a salient criminological paradigm in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Prompted by new theories and reformulations of existing ones, over 200 empirical studies explored ecological correlates of crime. Few efforts have been made, however, to "make sense"...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Crime and justice (Chicago, Ill.) Ill.), 2005-01, Vol.32, p.373-450
Main Authors: Pratt, Travis C., Cullen, Francis T.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Crime
Crime prediction
Crime rates
Criminal justice
Criminology
Deviant Behavior
Drug related crimes
Paradigms
Poverty
Social Environment
Social Theories
Theoretical Problems
Unemployment
Violent crimes
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Summary:The macro-level approach reemerged as a salient criminological paradigm in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Prompted by new theories and reformulations of existing ones, over 200 empirical studies explored ecological correlates of crime. Few efforts have been made, however, to "make sense" of this literature. A "meta-analysis" was undertaken to determine the relative effects of macro-level predictors of crime. Indicators of "concentrated disadvantage" (e.g., racial heterogeneity, poverty, and family disruption) are among the strongest and most stable predictors. Except for incarceration, variables indicating increased use of the criminal justice system (e.g., policing and get-tough policy effects) are among the weakest. Across all studies, social disorganization and resource/economic deprivation theories receive strong empirical support; anomie/strain, social support/social altruism, and routine activity theories receive moderate support; and deterrence/rational choice and subcultural theories receive weak support.
ISSN:0192-3234
2153-0416
DOI:10.1086/655357