When Experience Fails: The Experience Factor in Congressional Runoffs

Ambition theory identifies political experience as a major correlate of holding higher office. We explore the possibility that under certain conditions, political experience may do little to promote election. Specifically, in runoff primaries experience may not promote a candidate's prospects f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Legislative studies quarterly 2001-02, Vol.26 (1), p.31-43
Main Authors: Bullock, Charles S., Gaddie, Ronald Keith, Ferrington, Anders
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Candidates
Congressional elections
Elections
Experience
Incumbents
Legislative Bodies
Legislators
Modeling
Political campaigns
Political candidates
Preferential voting
Primary elections
Runoff elections
State legislators
United States of America
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Summary:Ambition theory identifies political experience as a major correlate of holding higher office. We explore the possibility that under certain conditions, political experience may do little to promote election. Specifically, in runoff primaries experience may not promote a candidate's prospects for nomination. When an experienced candidate, such as a former state legislator, fails to win a majority in the initial primary, it may indicate that any advantages derived from experience have been discounted by the electorate. The relationship between experience and runoff election success is explored using 87 U.S. House elections from 1982 through 1994. The evidence shows that in runoffs experienced candidates who led their primaries have no advantage, while the greater the experience of the primary runner-up, the more likely it is that the front-runner will be nominated.
ISSN:0362-9805
DOI:10.2307/440402