Third-Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts

Recent research has begun to focus on the role of outside interventions in the duration of civil conflicts. Assuming that interventions are a form of conflict management, ex ante expectations would be that they would reduce a conflict's expected duration. Hypotheses relating the type and timing...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of conflict resolution 2002-02, Vol.46 (1), p.55-73
Main Author: Regan, Patrick M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Armed conflict
Bias
Casualties
Civil War
Civil wars
Conflict
Conflict management
Conflict Resolution
Conflict theory
Conflicts
Empirical evidence
Ethnic conflict
Expected utility
Factor analysis
Foreign Policy
Government (Administrative Body)
Government intervention
International Relations
Interstate conflict
Intervention
Military aid
Political conflict
Political science
Political science research
Religion
Third party
Third-party intervention
Variables
War
War conflict
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Summary:Recent research has begun to focus on the role of outside interventions in the duration of civil conflicts. Assuming that interventions are a form of conflict management, ex ante expectations would be that they would reduce a conflict's expected duration. Hypotheses relating the type and timing of outside interventions to the duration of civil conflicts are tested. The data incorporate 150 conflicts during the period from 1945 to 1999, 101 of which had outside interventions. Using a hazard analysis, the results suggest that third-party interventions tend to extend expected durations rather than shorten them. The only aspect of the strategy for intervening that reduces the likelihood that a conflict will end in the next month is that it be biased in favor of either the opposition or the government. In effect, neutral interventions are less effective than biased ones.
ISSN:0022-0027
1552-8766
DOI:10.1177/0022002702046001004