Predicting the 1998 Indian parliamentary election

An account is given of the methods used to predict the results of the 1998 Indian parliamentary election by a team from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. The special features of the Indian party and electoral system and the election-night context as they relate to the problem...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Electoral studies 2002-03, Vol.21 (1), p.69-89
Main Authors: Karandikar, Rajeeva L., Payne, Clive, Yadav, Yogendra
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Election forecasting
Elections
Electoral results
Electoral systems
Electorate
Forecasting
Government and politics
India
Indian general election
Legislative Bodies
Methodology
Opinion Polls
Parliamentary elections
Party systems
Political Systems
Prediction
Public opinion polls
Public Opinion Research
Voting
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Summary:An account is given of the methods used to predict the results of the 1998 Indian parliamentary election by a team from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. The special features of the Indian party and electoral system and the election-night context as they relate to the problem of election forecasting are discussed. The methods developed for the polling of the Indian electorate and for forecasting the composition of the parliament from the sequence of results declared are presented.
ISSN:0261-3794
1873-6890
DOI:10.1016/S0261-3794(00)00042-1