A Time Series Analysis of Sino-Indian Relations

Time series analysis is not as well developed as time point analysis in the study of international relations. This paper reviews some of the time series studies that have been done, and then offers a time series analysis of communications between decision-making elites in the Republic of India and t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of conflict resolution 1969-06, Vol.13 (2), p.172-191
Main Author: Smoker, Paul
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
China
China/Chinese
Communication/Communications/ Communicative/ Communicating/ Communicator/ Communicational
Conflict resolution
Correlation coefficients
Correlations
Foreign relations
India
India/Indian/Indians
Inference
Information overload
International politics
International relations
Relations/Relational
Statistics
Time series
Time series analysis
War
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Summary:Time series analysis is not as well developed as time point analysis in the study of international relations. This paper reviews some of the time series studies that have been done, and then offers a time series analysis of communications between decision-making elites in the Republic of India and the People's Republic of China during the period from 1959 through 1964. Assumptions related to freedom of decision, interaction, and reaction are specified in the explication of approach and method, and an attempt is made to relate the findings to those of experimental gaming (e.g., the "lock-in" effect). The six-year period under study showed three distinct phases. During the first period, freedom of decision was never lost by both nations at once, "lock-in" was avoided, and information overload was not apparent. The crisis associated with the situation in Tibet did not break down into war. During the second period the profiles graphed were consistent with a "lock-in" situation with information overload and loss of freedom of decision by both groups; this crisis did break down into war. Better indicators and sets of indicators within the general research design used here would provide more accuracy for shorter time periods.
ISSN:0022-0027
1552-8766
DOI:10.1177/002200276901300210