The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome

Civil wars have several outcomes: government victory, rebel victory, truce, or treaty. This analysis models state capacity as a theoretical starting point to underpin hypotheses on duration and outcome. To test these hypotheses, multinomial logit and competing risk survival analysis are utilized. Th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of peace research 2004-05, Vol.41 (3), p.303-320
Main Authors: Karl R. De Rouen Jr, Sobek, David
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Armies
Bureaucracy
Civil War
Civil wars
Conflict
Conflict Resolution
Democracy
Forest cover
Government
Government bureaucracy
Government intervention
International relations
Military history
Military Intervention
Minority & ethnic violence
Peace treaties
Rebellions
Rebels
State Power
Third-party intervention
Treaties
United Nations
Viability
War
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Summary:Civil wars have several outcomes: government victory, rebel victory, truce, or treaty. This analysis models state capacity as a theoretical starting point to underpin hypotheses on duration and outcome. To test these hypotheses, multinomial logit and competing risk survival analysis are utilized. These methods allow for the examination of each outcome and its respective duration dynamics. Logit tells us what shapes the probability of each outcome, and hazard analysis identifies the factors that determine the time to each outcome. The models examine the years 1944 to 1997 and find that state capacity is involved in outcome and duration in at least two important ways. An effective state bureaucracy undermines the rebels, but a strong government army does not necessarily enhance the government cause. UN intervention decreases the probability of both government and rebel victory, while increasing the likelihood of a treaty or truce. In addition, rebels have a decreased probability of winning ethnic wars. Forest cover hinders rebels and treaties, while mountain cover tends to help rebels. African wars are harder for governments to win. African wars and ethnic wars are longer.
ISSN:0022-3433
1460-3578
DOI:10.1177/0022343304043771