Candidate Behavior in Presidential Nomination Campaigns: A Dynamic Model

Substantial gaps exist in our understanding of nomination politics in part because existing models do not fully reflect the dynamics of the processes involved. In this research, I develop and evaluate a model that simulates candidate behavior over time. Differences in candidates' resource alloc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of politics 1993-02, Vol.55 (1), p.115-139
Main Author: Gurian, Paul-Henri
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Behavior
Budget allocation
Campaigns
Candidate
Journalism
Modeling
Nominations
Political campaigns
Political candidates
Political finance
Polls
Presidency
Presidential candidates
Presidential elections
Primary elections
Simulations
Statistical models
United States
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Summary:Substantial gaps exist in our understanding of nomination politics in part because existing models do not fully reflect the dynamics of the processes involved. In this research, I develop and evaluate a model that simulates candidate behavior over time. Differences in candidates' resource allocations depend on the relative weights assigned to strategic goals and the rate at which candidates discount the future. Candidates allocate resources in proportion to each state's potential contribution to their strategic goals. The model presented here allows candidates' goals and their discount rates to vary as circumstances vary. To evaluate the explanatory power of the simulation model, allocations predicted by this model, and those predicted by statistical models were compared to observed campaign spending data. The simulation model, without estimating parameters, performs as well as the statistical models do; when a key variable is allowed to vary, the simulation predictions fit the observed data slightly better than the statistical predictions do.
ISSN:0022-3816
1468-2508
DOI:10.2307/2132231