Exploring Cuba's Alternate Economic Futures

This essay assesses Cuba's economic prospects and explores its possible economic futures. Cuba's current economic crisis is probably the most severe since Independence. The sharp decline in export earnings has generated an energy crisis, food shortages, and investment decline. Continuing p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Cuban studies 1993-01, Vol.23, p.3-31
Main Author: RITTER, ARCHIBALD R. M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cuba
Economic models
Economic Policy
Economic recovery
Economic systems
Economic transitions
Foreign exchange
Future
Imports
International economics
Market economies
Petroleum
Socioeconomics
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Summary:This essay assesses Cuba's economic prospects and explores its possible economic futures. Cuba's current economic crisis is probably the most severe since Independence. The sharp decline in export earnings has generated an energy crisis, food shortages, and investment decline. Continuing problems with the economic architecture will make sustained recovery most difficult in the longer term. This analysis of Cuba's future economic alternatives focuses on some key factors that will help shape the course of events. Various economic scenarios, from optimistic "best case" to pessimistic "worst case," and five archetypical models are outlined. A "social economy of the market" is considered to be possibly the most attractive future possibility for Cuba. The essay ends by discussing some aspects of the transition to such a model. El objetivo del ensayo es evaluar las perspectivas económicas de Cuba y explorar posibles futuros económicos para la nación. El ensayo comienza con un análisis de la crísis económica actual cubana—quizás la mas severa desde su independencia. La brusca decaída en las exportaciones ha dado lugar a una crísis energética y de alimentación y a una gran decaída en las inversiones. Problemas estructurales dificultarán la recuperación sustentable de la economía a largo plazo. El ensayo identifica una serie de factores que influenciarán el futuro económico de Cuba. Varias alternativas del futuro económico cubano se presentan en el trabajo, desde un escenario óptimo hasta el mas negativo en términos de desarrollo económico. Una de las conclusiones del trabajo es que el modelo de economía de mercado que toma en consideración aspectos sociales podría ser el mas atractivo para Cuba. El ensayo concluye con comentarios sobre una transición económica hacia ese modelo.
ISSN:0361-4441
1548-2464