Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections

Conventional wisdom holds that higher turnout favors Democrats. Previous studies of this hypothesis rely on presidential and House elections or on survey data, but senatorial and gubernatorial elections offer better conditions for directly testing turnout effects in U.S. politics. In a comprehensive...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American political science review 1996-12, Vol.90 (4), p.780-793
Main Authors: Nagel, Jack H., McNulty, John E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
DEMOCRATIC PARTY (ALL NATIONS)
Elections
Elections to the upper chamber
Governor
Gubernatorial elections
Incumbents
Partisan
Partisanship
Political parties
POLITICAL PARTISANSHIP
Politics
Presidential elections
Regression coefficients
REPUBLICAN PARTY (ALL NATIONS)
Senate
SENATE (ALL NATIONS)
SOUTH (UNITED STATES)
State elections
U.S.A
United States
UNITED STATES PRIOR TO 1945
UNITED STATES, 1945 TO PRESENT
Voter registration
Voter turnout
VOTING
Voting Behavior
Voting rights
Voting turnout
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Summary:Conventional wisdom holds that higher turnout favors Democrats. Previous studies of this hypothesis rely on presidential and House elections or on survey data, but senatorial and gubernatorial elections offer better conditions for directly testing turnout effects in U.S. politics. In a comprehensive analysis of these statewide elections since 1928, we find that the conventional theory was true outside the South through 1964, but since 1965 the overall relationship between turnout and partisan outcomes has been insignificant. Even before the mid-1960s, the turnout effect outside the South was strongest in Republican states and insignificant or negative in heavily Democratic states. A similar but weaker pattern obtains after 1964. In the South, which we analyze only since 1966, higher turnout helped Republicans until 1990, but in 1990–94 the effect became pro-Democratic. The conventional theory cannot account for these complex patterns, but they are impressively consistent with DeNardo's (1980) theory.
ISSN:0003-0554
1537-5943
DOI:10.2307/2945842