An evaluation of Delphi

The literature concerning quantitative applications of the Delphi method is reviewed. No evidence was found to support the view that Delphi is more accurate than other judgment methods or that consensus in a Delphi is achieved by dissemination of information to all participants. Existing data sugges...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Technological forecasting & social change 1991-09, Vol.40 (2), p.131-150
Main Author: Woudenberg, Fred
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Data
Forecasting
Methodology (Data Collection)
Quantitative Methods
Validity
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Summary:The literature concerning quantitative applications of the Delphi method is reviewed. No evidence was found to support the view that Delphi is more accurate than other judgment methods or that consensus in a Delphi is achieved by dissemination of information to all participants. Existing data suggest that consensus is achieved mainly by group pressure to conformity, mediated by the statistical group response that is fed back to all participants.
ISSN:0040-1625
1873-5509
DOI:10.1016/0040-1625(91)90002-W