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Predicting doctorate production in the U.S.A.: Some lessons for long-range forecasters

The nine major independently conducted forecasts of doctoral degree production for the 1970s shared a consistently high bias, although one was quite accurate. In this paper we compare the forecasting models based upon results of these studies and discuss their implications for long-range forecasting...

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Published in:International journal of forecasting 1990, Vol.6 (1), p.39-52
Main Authors: Pollack-Johnson, Bruce, Dean, Burton V., Reisman, Arnold, Michenzi, Alfred R.
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Language:English
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container_title International journal of forecasting
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creator Pollack-Johnson, Bruce
Dean, Burton V.
Reisman, Arnold
Michenzi, Alfred R.
description The nine major independently conducted forecasts of doctoral degree production for the 1970s shared a consistently high bias, although one was quite accurate. In this paper we compare the forecasting models based upon results of these studies and discuss their implications for long-range forecasting. We show that the bias was mainly due to a common core assumption (exemplifying ‘assumption drag’) that students would pursue degrees at close to the existing rates in spite of decreasing traditional demand for graduates. The results also indicate the value of simple models and eclectic forecasting methods, the desirability of robust causal models and the dangers of extrapolative methods (especially with insufficient historical data) when structural changes are anticipated, the usefulness of current expert opinion, the inappropriateness of intentions surveys for time horizons longer than the lead time needed for significant change, and the importance of physical and economic limitations and principles (such as substitution effects and interactions between supply and demand) in developing long-range forecasting models.
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identifier ISSN: 0169-2070
ispartof International journal of forecasting, 1990, Vol.6 (1), p.39-52
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language eng
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source Backfile Package - Business, Management and Accounting (Legacy) [YBT]; Backfile Package - Decision Sciences [YDT]; Sociological Abstracts
subjects Accuracy
Comparative accuracy: causal
Comparative forecasts
Comparative studies
Doctoral Degrees
Econometric forecasting
Econometrics
Education
Extrapolation
Forecasting
Forecasting accuracy
Forecasting techniques
Forecasts
Human resource forecasting
Human resources
judgmental
Judgmental forecasting
Long-range forecasting
Production
Statistical analysis
Students
time series
United States of America
title Predicting doctorate production in the U.S.A.: Some lessons for long-range forecasters
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