Capping Kids: The Family Cap and Nonmarital Childbearing

An explicit goal of policymakers in drafting welfare reform policies was to reduce incentives for nonmarital childbearing. This paper estimates the extent to which state welfare reforms have lowered age and race-specific nonmarital fertility. Using state-level data from 1984 to 1999—a time period th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Population research and policy review 2008-04, Vol.27 (2), p.119-138
Main Authors: Horvath-Rose, Ann E., Peters, H. Elizabeth, Sabia, Joseph J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abortion
Autocorrelation
Birth rate
Birth rates
Births
Births to single mothers
Children
Children & youth
Demographic economics
Demography
Econometric models
Econometrics
Economic models
Families & family life
Family
Family cap
Family Policy
Fertility
Illegitimacy
Limitations
Low income groups
Marriage
Mothers
Nonmarital childbearing
Opportunity costs
Parenting
Policy studies
Population
Population Economics
Provisions
Public assistance programs
Ratios
Reconciliation
Reforms
Single status
Single women
Social policy
Social Sciences
Sociology
U.S.A
Welfare
Welfare Reform
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Summary:An explicit goal of policymakers in drafting welfare reform policies was to reduce incentives for nonmarital childbearing. This paper estimates the extent to which state welfare reforms have lowered age and race-specific nonmarital fertility. Using state-level data from 1984 to 1999—a time period that includes the passage and implementation of national welfare reform—we estimate fixed effects models corrected for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. We find evidence that the family cap, a policy that decreases or eliminates the incremental increase in benefits for mothers who have an additional child while on welfare, is associated with a decline in nonmarital birth ratios. However, we also find that the family cap is associated with higher marital birth rates. Taken together with other research, our findings suggest evidence of policy endogeneity.
ISSN:0167-5923
1573-7829
DOI:10.1007/s11113-008-9076-7