Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds e...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Social indicators research 2008-04, Vol.86 (2), p.303-321
Main Authors: Costa-Font, Joan, Wittenberg, Raphael, Patxot, Concepció, Comas-Herrera, Adelina, Gori, Cristiano, di Maio, Alessandra, Pickard, Linda, Pozzi, Alessandro, Rothgang, Heinz
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Aging
Attrition (Research Studies)
Birth Rate
Censuses
Cross Cultural Studies
Demographics
Demography
Economics
European Union
Evidence
Expenditures
Federal Republic of Germany
Fertility
Fertility rates
Foreign Countries
GDP
Germany
Gross Domestic Product
Health Services
Human ecology and demography
Human Geography
Human migration
Italy
Life expectancy
Long Term Care
Long term health care
Membership
Men
Microeconomics
Migration
Morality
Mortality
Mortality Rate
Older adults
Older people
Policy Formation
Population
Population economics
Population forecasts
Population studies
Public expenditure
Public Health
Public Policy
Quality of Life Research
Research methods
Simulation
Social conditions & trends
Social Indicators
Social policy
Social research
Social Sciences
Social Services
Sociocultural Patterns
Sociology
Spain
Supply and Demand
Sustainability
Union Members
United Kingdom
Welfare economics
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Summary:This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.
ISSN:0303-8300
1573-0921
DOI:10.1007/s11205-007-9140-4