Modelling the time-dependent transmission rate for porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) in pigs using data from serial transmission experiments

Six successive transmission trials were carried out from 4 to 39 days post inoculation (DPI) to determine the features of the infectious period for PCV2-infected pigs. The infectiousness of inoculated pigs, assessed from the frequency of occurrence of infected pigs in susceptible groups in each cont...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the Royal Society interface 2009-01, Vol.6 (30), p.39-50
Main Authors: Andraud, M, Grasland, B, Durand, B, Cariolet, R, Jestin, A, Madec, F, Pierre, J.S, Rose, N
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal biology
Animals
Circoviridae Infections - transmission
Circoviridae Infections - veterinary
Circovirus - genetics
DNA Primers - genetics
Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay
Life Sciences
Likelihood Functions
Modelling
Models, Biological
Pigs
Porcine Circovirus Type 2
Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction
Sensitivity and Specificity
Sus scrofa
Swine Diseases - transmission
Time Factors
Transmission Rate
Veterinary medicine and animal Health
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Summary:Six successive transmission trials were carried out from 4 to 39 days post inoculation (DPI) to determine the features of the infectious period for PCV2-infected pigs. The infectiousness of inoculated pigs, assessed from the frequency of occurrence of infected pigs in susceptible groups in each contact trial, increased from 4 to 18 DPI (0, 7 and 8 infected pigs at 4, 11 and 18 DPI, respectively) and then decreased slowly until 39 days post infection (4, 2 and 1 pigs infected at 25, 32 and 39 DPI, respectively). The estimated time-dependent infectiousness was fitted to three unimodal function shapes (gamma, Weibull and lognormal) for comparison. The absence of infected pigs at 4 DPI revealed a latency period between 4 and 10 DPI. A sensitivity analysis was performed to test whether the parametric shape of the transmission function influenced the estimations. The estimated time-dependent transmission rate was implemented in a deterministic SEIR model and validated by comparing the model prediction with external data. The lognormal-like function shape evidenced the best quality of fit, leading to a latency period of 8 days, an estimated basic reproduction ratio of 5.9 [1.8,10.1] and a mean disease generation time of 18.4 days [18.2, 18.5].
ISSN:1742-5689
1742-5662
DOI:10.1098/rsif.2008.0210