Forecasting demand for Hib-containing vaccine in the world's poorest countries: A 4-year prospective experience

Abstract This article analyzes the performance of a Hib vaccine demand forecast developed in 2003 for 68 GAVI-supported countries between 2004 and 2007. During that period of time, corresponding to an acceleration of Hib vaccine uptake, several groups of countries were identified based on the stage...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Vaccine 2009-01, Vol.27 (3), p.410-415
Main Authors: Zuber, Patrick L.F, Dumolard, Laure, Shirey, Meredith, Rizzo, Ivone, Marshall, John
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Allergy and Immunology
Applied microbiology
Bacterial Capsules - immunology
Bacteriology
Biological and medical sciences
Delphi method
Demand forecast
Developing Countries
Estimates
Forecasting
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Funding
Haemophilus Infections - epidemiology
Haemophilus Infections - microbiology
Haemophilus influenzae
Haemophilus influenzae type b - immunology
Haemophilus Vaccines - immunology
Hepatitis B
Humans
Immunization
Microbiology
Miscellaneous
Tetanus
Vaccination - trends
Vaccination - utilization
Vaccine
Vaccines
Vaccines, antisera, therapeutical immunoglobulins and monoclonal antibodies (general aspects)
Whooping cough
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Abstract This article analyzes the performance of a Hib vaccine demand forecast developed in 2003 for 68 GAVI-supported countries between 2004 and 2007. During that period of time, corresponding to an acceleration of Hib vaccine uptake, several groups of countries were identified based on the stage of their decision-making process, perception of Hib disease burden and programme performance. Better forecast accuracy was obtained for countries having already introduced the vaccine or that were about to do so. The ability to anticipate global needs in terms of vaccine volumes was highly dependant on the actual year of introduction of a small number of very large countries.
ISSN:0264-410X
1873-2518
DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.10.069