More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century

A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become mo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2004-08, Vol.305 (5686), p.994-997
Main Authors: Meehl, Gerald A., Tebaldi, Claudia
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric models
Atmospheric pressure
Attrition (Research Studies)
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climatic changes
Climatic zones
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Definitions
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Forecasts and trends
Heat
Heat waves (Meteorology)
International environmental cooperation
Market trend/market analysis
Mathematical minima
Meteorology
Properties
Simulations
Warm fronts
Waves
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Summary:A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.1098704