Seasonality of tuberculosis in India: is it real and what does it tell us?

India has a third of the world's tuberculosis cases. Large-scale expansion of a national programme in 1998 has allowed for population-based analyses of data from tuberculosis registries. We assessed seasonal trends using quarterly reports from districts with stable tuberculosis control programm...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Lancet (British edition) 2004-10, Vol.364 (9445), p.1613-1614
Main Authors: Thorpe, Lorna E, Frieden, Thomas R, Laserson, Kayla F, Wells, Charles, Khatri, Gulshan R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Bacterial diseases
Biological and medical sciences
Child
General aspects
Human bacterial diseases
Humans
India - epidemiology
Infectious diseases
Medical diagnosis
Medical sciences
Middle Aged
Pediatrics
Public sector
Seasonal variations
Seasons
Tuberculosis
Tuberculosis - epidemiology
Tuberculosis and atypical mycobacterial infections
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Summary:India has a third of the world's tuberculosis cases. Large-scale expansion of a national programme in 1998 has allowed for population-based analyses of data from tuberculosis registries. We assessed seasonal trends using quarterly reports from districts with stable tuberculosis control programmes (population 115 million). In northern India, tuberculosis diagnoses peaked between April and June, and reached a nadir between October and December, whereas no seasonality was reported in the south. Overall, rates of new smear-positive tuberculosis cases were 57 per 100 000 population in peak seasons versus 46 per 100 000 in trough seasons. General health-seeking behaviour artifact was ruled out. Seasonality was highest in paediatric cases, suggesting variation in recent transmission.
ISSN:0140-6736
1474-547X
DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17316-9