Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominately aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature 2005-03, Vol.434 (7032), p.457-461
Main Authors: McGuire, Jeffrey J, Boettcher, Margaret S, Jordan, Thomas H
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Earthquakes
Earthquakes, seismology
Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics
Exact sciences and technology
Fault lines
Geology
Humanities and Social Sciences
Internal geophysics
Marine
multidisciplinary
Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc
Plate tectonics
Predictions
Science
Seismic activity
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Summary:East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominately aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.
ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/nature03377