A multivariate regression model predicted falls in residents living in intermediate hostel care

To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population. We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents. During the follow-up...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of clinical epidemiology 2005-05, Vol.58 (5), p.503-508
Main Authors: Chen, J.S., March, L.M., Schwarz, J., Zochling, J., Makaroff, J., Sitoh, Y.Y., Lau, T.C., Lord, S.R., Cameron, I.D., Cumming, R.G., Sambrook, P.N.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accidental Falls - statistics & numerical data
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Biological and medical sciences
Bone density
Cognition Disorders - complications
Cognitive ability
Confidence intervals
Consent
Elderly
Epidemiologic Methods
Epidemiology
Falls
Female
Frail Elderly
Frailty
General aspects
Humans
Injuries
Male
Medical sciences
Methodology
Methods
Older people
Postural Balance
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
Regression model
Residential care facility
Residential Facilities
Risk assessment
Risk factors
Urinary Incontinence - complications
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Summary:To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population. We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents. During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score ≥7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (≥7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (
ISSN:0895-4356
1878-5921
DOI:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.08.018