Consensus Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response System (FFWRS): an alternate for nonstructural flood management in Bangladesh

Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is because of short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental management (New York) 2005-06, Vol.35 (6), p.716-725
Main Author: Chowdhury, Rashed
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bangladesh
Civil defense
Climate
Disaster Planning
Disasters
Environmental management
Flood control
Flood forecasting
Flood hazards
Floods
Forecasting
Information dissemination
Information Systems
Risk Assessment
Seasons
Time Factors
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is because of short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts--the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh--and disseminate these products through the appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecast, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Response System (henceforth, FFWRS) has been found to be an important component in a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood management. A general consensus in producing seasonal forecasts can thus be achieved by enhancing the existing FFWRS. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. The five-stage FFWRS-i) Flood forecasting, ii) Forecast interpretation and message formulation, iii) Warning preparation and dissemination, iv) Responses, and v) Review and analysis-has been modified. To apply the concept of consensus forecast, a framework similar to that of the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) has been discussed. Finally, the need for a climate Outlook Fora has been emphasized for a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh.
ISSN:0364-152X
1432-1009
DOI:10.1007/s00267-004-0010-4