Flux and stability: individual fluctuations, regression towards the mean and collective changes in alcohol consumption

ABSTRACT Aim  First, to extend the predictions of the collectivity theory of drinking cultures to contexts of ordinary panel data, thereby integrating collective change and individual fluctuations in consumption. Secondly, to develop a technique for controlling the regression towards the mean effect...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Addiction (Abingdon, England) England), 2006-07, Vol.101 (7), p.959-970
Main Authors: Skog, Ole-Jørgen, Rossow, Ingeborg
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Addictive behaviors
Adult and adolescent clinical studies
Alcohol
Alcohol consumption
Alcohol Drinking - epidemiology
Alcoholic Beverages
Biological and medical sciences
Collective action theory
Collective behaviour
collectivity of drinking cultures
Drinking Behavior
Drug addiction
Effects
Finland - epidemiology
Health
Humans
Individuals
longitudinal data
Longitudinal Studies
Medical sciences
Models, Psychological
Models, Theoretical
Norway - epidemiology
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychopathology. Psychiatry
Regression Analysis
regression towards the mean
Social problems
Social stability
Statistics
Substance use
Toxicology
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Summary:ABSTRACT Aim  First, to extend the predictions of the collectivity theory of drinking cultures to contexts of ordinary panel data, thereby integrating collective change and individual fluctuations in consumption. Secondly, to develop a technique for controlling the regression towards the mean effect, in order to estimate the pattern of individual change, net of this effect. Design  The task is, first and foremost, to develop a theoretical model, guided by earlier contributions and empirical results. The applicability of the model is illustrated through re‐analyses of panel data on annual intake of alcoholic beverages from the Finnish alcohol reform in 1968–69, and Norwegian panel data from 1975 to 1976. Findings  The model offers a reasonable fit to the data. It is demonstrated that a previous attempt at controlling the regression effect has overlooked a methodological complication, and therefore underestimates the real change. Conclusion  Analysis of the Finnish data demonstrates that the large increase in average consumption was due to approximately the same percentage‐wise increase in the consumption level of drinkers at all levels, when the regression effect was controlled for. Thus, in absolute terms the increase was largest among the heavier drinkers.
ISSN:0965-2140
1360-0443
DOI:10.1111/j.1360-0443.2006.01492.x