Establishing normal reference ranges for prostate volume change with age in the population-based Krimpen-study: Prediction of future prostate volume in individual men

• Published in: The Prostate 2007-12, Vol.67 (16), p.1816-1824
• Main Authors: Bosch, J.L.H.R., Tilling, K., Bohnen, A.M., Bangma, C.H., Donovan, J.L.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Age Factors; Aged; benign prostatic hyperplasia; Biological and medical sciences; Cohort Studies; Gynecology. Andrology. Obstetrics; Humans; Longitudinal Studies; Male; Male genital diseases; Medical sciences; Middle Aged; Models, Statistical; Nephrology. Urinary tract diseases; Organ Size; Prostate - anatomy & histology; Prostate - diagnostic imaging; prostate growth; Reference Values; total prostate volume; transition zone volume; Tumors; Tumors of the urinary system; Ultrasonography; Urinary tract. Prostate gland; watchful waiting
• ISSN: 0270-4137; 1097-0045
• DOI: 10.1002/pros.20663

BACKGROUND We aim to establish the normal pattern of prostate volume change with age to provide a baseline from which accelerated prostate growth might be identified in patients with lower urinary tract symptoms/benign prostatic hyperplasia (LUTS/BPH). METHODS In a community‐based study, prostate volume was determined at baseline and after 2.1 and 4.2 years in men without prostate cancer. A bivariate multilevel growth curve model was used to estimate the pattern of change of prostate volume with age. RESULTS The average percentage increase of total prostate volume and transition zone volume per year of follow‐up was 2.2% and 3.5%, respectively. The final model showed that prostate volume was related to age only. The future prostate volume of an individual can be predicted based on his age and known history of prostate volume. The model was also used to calculate time needed for the prostate volume to increase with a certain percentage, for men with different baseline prostate volume values at different ages. CONCLUSIONS This method establishes normal prostate volume values by age using prostate volume history in men without prostate cancer. The model provides baseline data from which disease progression might be detected. Prostate 67: 1816–1824, 2007. © 2007 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.