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Prostate Cancer and the Will Rogers Phenomenon
Background: Information on tumor stage and grade are used to assess cancer prognosis and to produce standardized comparisons of end results over time. Changes in the interpretation of classification schemes can alter the apparent distribution of cancer stage or grade in the absence of a true biologi...
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Published in: | JNCI : Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2005-09, Vol.97 (17), p.1248-1253 |
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description | Background: Information on tumor stage and grade are used to assess cancer prognosis and to produce standardized comparisons of end results over time. Changes in the interpretation of classification schemes can alter the apparent distribution of cancer stage or grade in the absence of a true biologic change. Since the introduction of prostate-specific antigen testing, the reported incidence of low-grade prostate cancer has declined. To determine whether this decline is in part a result of Gleason score reclassification during the same time period, we documented the potential impact of reclassification between 1992 and 2002 on clinical outcomes. Methods: A population-based cohort of 1858 men who were ≤75 years of age at diagnosis of prostate cancer in 1990–1992 was assembled retrospectively from the Connecticut Tumor Registry. Histology slides of the diagnostic prostate tissue were retrieved and reread in 2002–2004 by an experienced pathologist blinded to the original Gleason score readings. Prostate cancer mortality rates for the cohort calculated using the original Gleason score readings were compared with those calculated using the contemporary Gleason score readings. Statistical tests were two sided. Results: The contemporary Gleason score readings were statistically significantly higher than the original readings (mean score increased from 5.95 to 6.8; difference = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.79 to 0.91; P |
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H. ; Sanders, M. Melinda ; Fine, Judith</creator><creatorcontrib>Albertsen, Peter C. ; Hanley, James A. ; Barrows, George H. ; Penson, David F. ; Kowalczyk, Pam D. H. ; Sanders, M. Melinda ; Fine, Judith</creatorcontrib><description>Background: Information on tumor stage and grade are used to assess cancer prognosis and to produce standardized comparisons of end results over time. Changes in the interpretation of classification schemes can alter the apparent distribution of cancer stage or grade in the absence of a true biologic change. Since the introduction of prostate-specific antigen testing, the reported incidence of low-grade prostate cancer has declined. To determine whether this decline is in part a result of Gleason score reclassification during the same time period, we documented the potential impact of reclassification between 1992 and 2002 on clinical outcomes. Methods: A population-based cohort of 1858 men who were ≤75 years of age at diagnosis of prostate cancer in 1990–1992 was assembled retrospectively from the Connecticut Tumor Registry. Histology slides of the diagnostic prostate tissue were retrieved and reread in 2002–2004 by an experienced pathologist blinded to the original Gleason score readings. Prostate cancer mortality rates for the cohort calculated using the original Gleason score readings were compared with those calculated using the contemporary Gleason score readings. Statistical tests were two sided. Results: The contemporary Gleason score readings were statistically significantly higher than the original readings (mean score increased from 5.95 to 6.8; difference = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.79 to 0.91; P<.001). Consequently, the Gleason score–standardized contemporary prostate cancer mortality rate (1.50 deaths per 100 person-years) appeared to be 28% lower than standardized historical rates (2.08 deaths per 100 person-years), even though the overall outcome was unchanged. This apparent improvement in mortality held for all Gleason score categories. Conclusions: In this population, a decline in the reported incidence of low-grade prostate cancers appears to be the result of Gleason score reclassification over the past decade. This reclassification resulted in apparent improvement in clinical outcomes. This finding reflects a statistical artifact known as the Will Rogers phenomenon.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0027-8874</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1460-2105</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1093/jnci/dji248</identifier><identifier>PMID: 16145045</identifier><identifier>CODEN: JNCIEQ</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Cary, NC: Oxford University Press</publisher><subject>Aged ; Bias ; Biological and medical sciences ; Biopsy ; Classification ; Clinical Trials as Topic ; Connecticut - epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Medical sciences ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; Mortality - trends ; Neoplasm Staging ; Nephrology. Urinary tract diseases ; Prognosis ; Prostate cancer ; Prostate-Specific Antigen - blood ; Prostatectomy ; Prostatic Neoplasms - immunology ; Prostatic Neoplasms - mortality ; Prostatic Neoplasms - pathology ; Prostatic Neoplasms - surgery ; Registries ; Retrospective Studies ; Severity of Illness Index ; Statistical analysis ; Treatment Outcome ; Tumors ; Tumors of the urinary system ; Urinary tract. Prostate gland</subject><ispartof>JNCI : Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2005-09, Vol.97 (17), p.1248-1253</ispartof><rights>2005 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright Oxford University Press(England) Sep 7, 2005</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c477t-3da7cb8a98c6db0e9cd998d34a7f208774bf259a021fd6c8281f836116a8187a3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c477t-3da7cb8a98c6db0e9cd998d34a7f208774bf259a021fd6c8281f836116a8187a3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=17108751$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16145045$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Albertsen, Peter C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hanley, James A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Barrows, George H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Penson, David F.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kowalczyk, Pam D. H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sanders, M. Melinda</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fine, Judith</creatorcontrib><title>Prostate Cancer and the Will Rogers Phenomenon</title><title>JNCI : Journal of the National Cancer Institute</title><addtitle>JNCI J Natl Cancer Inst</addtitle><description>Background: Information on tumor stage and grade are used to assess cancer prognosis and to produce standardized comparisons of end results over time. Changes in the interpretation of classification schemes can alter the apparent distribution of cancer stage or grade in the absence of a true biologic change. Since the introduction of prostate-specific antigen testing, the reported incidence of low-grade prostate cancer has declined. To determine whether this decline is in part a result of Gleason score reclassification during the same time period, we documented the potential impact of reclassification between 1992 and 2002 on clinical outcomes. Methods: A population-based cohort of 1858 men who were ≤75 years of age at diagnosis of prostate cancer in 1990–1992 was assembled retrospectively from the Connecticut Tumor Registry. Histology slides of the diagnostic prostate tissue were retrieved and reread in 2002–2004 by an experienced pathologist blinded to the original Gleason score readings. Prostate cancer mortality rates for the cohort calculated using the original Gleason score readings were compared with those calculated using the contemporary Gleason score readings. Statistical tests were two sided. Results: The contemporary Gleason score readings were statistically significantly higher than the original readings (mean score increased from 5.95 to 6.8; difference = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.79 to 0.91; P<.001). Consequently, the Gleason score–standardized contemporary prostate cancer mortality rate (1.50 deaths per 100 person-years) appeared to be 28% lower than standardized historical rates (2.08 deaths per 100 person-years), even though the overall outcome was unchanged. This apparent improvement in mortality held for all Gleason score categories. Conclusions: In this population, a decline in the reported incidence of low-grade prostate cancers appears to be the result of Gleason score reclassification over the past decade. This reclassification resulted in apparent improvement in clinical outcomes. This finding reflects a statistical artifact known as the Will Rogers phenomenon.</description><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Bias</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Biopsy</subject><subject>Classification</subject><subject>Clinical Trials as Topic</subject><subject>Connecticut - epidemiology</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medical sciences</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Mortality - trends</subject><subject>Neoplasm Staging</subject><subject>Nephrology. Urinary tract diseases</subject><subject>Prognosis</subject><subject>Prostate cancer</subject><subject>Prostate-Specific Antigen - blood</subject><subject>Prostatectomy</subject><subject>Prostatic Neoplasms - immunology</subject><subject>Prostatic Neoplasms - mortality</subject><subject>Prostatic Neoplasms - pathology</subject><subject>Prostatic Neoplasms - surgery</subject><subject>Registries</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>Severity of Illness Index</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Treatment Outcome</subject><subject>Tumors</subject><subject>Tumors of the urinary system</subject><subject>Urinary tract. Prostate gland</subject><issn>0027-8874</issn><issn>1460-2105</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2005</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNpd0M9LwzAUB_AgipvTk3cpgl6kLknT_DjKUCcMnDJ1eAlpmrrWrp1JC_rfm9HiwMAjh_fh8d4XgFMErxEU0biodD5OixwTvgeGiFAYYgTjfTCEELOQc0YG4Mi5AvonMDkEA0QRiSGJh-B6bmvXqMYEE1VpYwNVpUGzMsFbXpbBc_1hrAvmK1PVa1_VMTjIVOnMSf-PwMvd7WIyDWeP9w-Tm1moCWNNGKWK6YQrwTVNE2iEToXgaUQUyzDkjJEkw7FQEKMspZpjjjIeUYSo4ogzFY3AZTd3Y-uv1rhGrnOnTVmqytStk5THMROIeXj-DxZ1ayu_m8QYCk4FhB5ddUj7Y501mdzYfK3sj0RQbjOU2wxll6HXZ_3INlmbdGf70Dy46IFyWpWZ9cnlbucY8ifGyLuwc7lrzPdfX9lPSVnEYjldvsvF60wsGXmS0-gXF3GHpA</recordid><startdate>20050907</startdate><enddate>20050907</enddate><creator>Albertsen, Peter C.</creator><creator>Hanley, James A.</creator><creator>Barrows, George H.</creator><creator>Penson, David F.</creator><creator>Kowalczyk, Pam D. H.</creator><creator>Sanders, M. Melinda</creator><creator>Fine, Judith</creator><general>Oxford University Press</general><general>Oxford Publishing Limited (England)</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TO</scope><scope>7U7</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20050907</creationdate><title>Prostate Cancer and the Will Rogers Phenomenon</title><author>Albertsen, Peter C. ; Hanley, James A. ; Barrows, George H. ; Penson, David F. ; Kowalczyk, Pam D. H. ; Sanders, M. Melinda ; Fine, Judith</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c477t-3da7cb8a98c6db0e9cd998d34a7f208774bf259a021fd6c8281f836116a8187a3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2005</creationdate><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Bias</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Biopsy</topic><topic>Classification</topic><topic>Clinical Trials as Topic</topic><topic>Connecticut - epidemiology</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Medical sciences</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Mortality - trends</topic><topic>Neoplasm Staging</topic><topic>Nephrology. Urinary tract diseases</topic><topic>Prognosis</topic><topic>Prostate cancer</topic><topic>Prostate-Specific Antigen - blood</topic><topic>Prostatectomy</topic><topic>Prostatic Neoplasms - immunology</topic><topic>Prostatic Neoplasms - mortality</topic><topic>Prostatic Neoplasms - pathology</topic><topic>Prostatic Neoplasms - surgery</topic><topic>Registries</topic><topic>Retrospective Studies</topic><topic>Severity of Illness Index</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Treatment Outcome</topic><topic>Tumors</topic><topic>Tumors of the urinary system</topic><topic>Urinary tract. Prostate gland</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Albertsen, Peter C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hanley, James A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Barrows, George H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Penson, David F.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kowalczyk, Pam D. H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sanders, M. Melinda</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fine, Judith</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Oncogenes and Growth Factors Abstracts</collection><collection>Toxicology Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>JNCI : Journal of the National Cancer Institute</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Albertsen, Peter C.</au><au>Hanley, James A.</au><au>Barrows, George H.</au><au>Penson, David F.</au><au>Kowalczyk, Pam D. H.</au><au>Sanders, M. Melinda</au><au>Fine, Judith</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Prostate Cancer and the Will Rogers Phenomenon</atitle><jtitle>JNCI : Journal of the National Cancer Institute</jtitle><addtitle>JNCI J Natl Cancer Inst</addtitle><date>2005-09-07</date><risdate>2005</risdate><volume>97</volume><issue>17</issue><spage>1248</spage><epage>1253</epage><pages>1248-1253</pages><issn>0027-8874</issn><eissn>1460-2105</eissn><coden>JNCIEQ</coden><abstract>Background: Information on tumor stage and grade are used to assess cancer prognosis and to produce standardized comparisons of end results over time. Changes in the interpretation of classification schemes can alter the apparent distribution of cancer stage or grade in the absence of a true biologic change. Since the introduction of prostate-specific antigen testing, the reported incidence of low-grade prostate cancer has declined. To determine whether this decline is in part a result of Gleason score reclassification during the same time period, we documented the potential impact of reclassification between 1992 and 2002 on clinical outcomes. Methods: A population-based cohort of 1858 men who were ≤75 years of age at diagnosis of prostate cancer in 1990–1992 was assembled retrospectively from the Connecticut Tumor Registry. Histology slides of the diagnostic prostate tissue were retrieved and reread in 2002–2004 by an experienced pathologist blinded to the original Gleason score readings. Prostate cancer mortality rates for the cohort calculated using the original Gleason score readings were compared with those calculated using the contemporary Gleason score readings. Statistical tests were two sided. Results: The contemporary Gleason score readings were statistically significantly higher than the original readings (mean score increased from 5.95 to 6.8; difference = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.79 to 0.91; P<.001). Consequently, the Gleason score–standardized contemporary prostate cancer mortality rate (1.50 deaths per 100 person-years) appeared to be 28% lower than standardized historical rates (2.08 deaths per 100 person-years), even though the overall outcome was unchanged. This apparent improvement in mortality held for all Gleason score categories. Conclusions: In this population, a decline in the reported incidence of low-grade prostate cancers appears to be the result of Gleason score reclassification over the past decade. This reclassification resulted in apparent improvement in clinical outcomes. This finding reflects a statistical artifact known as the Will Rogers phenomenon.</abstract><cop>Cary, NC</cop><pub>Oxford University Press</pub><pmid>16145045</pmid><doi>10.1093/jnci/dji248</doi><tpages>6</tpages></addata></record> |
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subjects | Aged Bias Biological and medical sciences Biopsy Classification Clinical Trials as Topic Connecticut - epidemiology Humans Incidence Male Medical sciences Middle Aged Mortality Mortality - trends Neoplasm Staging Nephrology. Urinary tract diseases Prognosis Prostate cancer Prostate-Specific Antigen - blood Prostatectomy Prostatic Neoplasms - immunology Prostatic Neoplasms - mortality Prostatic Neoplasms - pathology Prostatic Neoplasms - surgery Registries Retrospective Studies Severity of Illness Index Statistical analysis Treatment Outcome Tumors Tumors of the urinary system Urinary tract. Prostate gland |
title | Prostate Cancer and the Will Rogers Phenomenon |
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